Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B - Round 16

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Vila Mítica (Lousada)


	Aparecida		Gouveia

	1	X	2
	1.48	3.85	5.7
	1.53	3.83	5.59	Watch
	1.44	3.75	5.5
	1.48	3.74	6.31
	1.52	3.8	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.5)	3.79 ↑ (3.72)	5.69 ↓ (5.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aparecida
60.4%

Draw
23.7%

Gouveia
15.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.2%

24.3%

15.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

18.7%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aparecida has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Gouveia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aparecida than the current prediction. (-14%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aparecida that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gouveia than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Aparecida - Gouveia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', 2 - 0, ⚽,
62', 3 - 0, ⚽,
68', 🟥,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation and 14 in the zone Relegation).

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Aparecida may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Aparecida is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Aparecida won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aparecida FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
18.01.26	União Lamas - Aparecida	0:0 ✺
10.01.26	Aparecida - Alpendorada	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Aparecida - Cinfães	1:4 ✺
14.12.25	Florgrade - Aparecida	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Aparecida - Leça	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TWLLL
- CD Gouveia
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
17.01.26	Gouveia - Resende	2:2 ✺
10.01.26	Salgueiros 08 - Gouveia	2:0 ✺
21.12.25	Beira-Mar - Gouveia	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Gouveia - Anadia	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Vila Meã - Gouveia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
24.08.25	Gouveia - Aparecida	1:2

Aparecida - Gouveia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide