Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 15 - Round 12

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday


	Ardoi		Peña Sport

	1	X	2
	3.4	3	2.05
	1.94	3.14	4.05	Watch
	3.35	3.13	2.07
	3.6	3.35	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↓ (3.6)	3.16 ↓ (3.35)	2.52 ↑ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ardoi
31.3%

Draw
30.5%

Peña Sport
38.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.3%

27.2%

47.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.7%

26.5%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ardoi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ardoi's performance.

Peña Sport has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Peña Sport might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ardoi than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ardoi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peña Sport than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Peña Sport could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ardoi - Peña Sport Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Javier F. 🟥,
31', 1 - 0, Gurpegui U. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
67', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+1', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 13 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ardoi won 1.

Recent performances by Ardoi have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Peña Sport is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ardoi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Peña Sport could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Ardoi won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:18. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ardoi won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Ardoi FE
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 15
15.11.25	Egüés - Ardoi	3:4 ✺
09.11.25	Ardoi - Huarte	1:2 ✺
01.11.25	Cortes - Ardoi	0:1 ✺
25.10.25	Ardoi - Oberena	0:2 ✺
11.10.25	Ardoi - Bidezarra	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 WLWLW
- Peña Sport
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 15
15.11.25	Peña Sport - Beti Kozkor	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	Egüés - Peña Sport	0:2 ✺
25.10.25	Peña Sport - Huarte	2:1 ✺
19.10.25	Cortes - Peña Sport	2:1 ✺
04.10.25	Izarra - Peña Sport	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 15
18.01.25	Ardoi - Peña Sport	1:2
25.05.24	Ardoi - Peña Sport	1:1
18.05.24	Peña Sport - Ardoi	0:1
27.01.24	Ardoi - Peña Sport	0:0
09.09.23	Peña Sport - Ardoi	0:0
06.05.23	Ardoi - Peña Sport	1:2
29.04.23	Peña Sport - Ardoi	2:1

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