Match Info

SPAIN: Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 21

Date: 9 February 2025, Sunday


	Aretxabaleta		Basconia

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.4	1.75
	4.2	3.5	1.74
	4.07	3.45	1.7
	4.25	3.61	1.74	Watch
	4.22	3.54	1.73
	4.2	3.5	1.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.14 ↑ (2.81)	3.5 ↑ (3.2)	1.73 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aretxabaleta
21.9%

Draw
25.9%

Basconia
52.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

28.4%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

28.5%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aretxabaleta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aretxabaleta's form might have worsened.

Basconia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Basconia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aretxabaleta than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aretxabaleta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Basconia than the current prediction. (-13.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Basconia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Aretxabaleta - Basconia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
6', 0 - 1, ⚽,
20', 0 - 2, ⚽,
21', 1 - 2, ⚽,
45+1', 1 - 3, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
78', 1 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 7 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 4 (Play Offs: )).

Recent matches Aretxabaleta is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Basconia is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Basconia have a series of home games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Aretxabaleta
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
01.02.25	Leioa - Aretxabaleta	2:1 ✺
19.01.25	Aretxabaleta - San Viator	2:1 ✺
12.01.25	Aretxabaleta - Portugalete	0:2 ✺
22.12.24	Eibar C - Aretxabaleta	0:0 ✺
15.12.24	Aretxabaleta - Touring KE	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWLTW
- CD Basconia
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
01.02.25	Basconia - San Viator	7:0 ✺
19.01.25	Basconia - Eibar C	4:3 ✺
11.01.25	Basconia - Touring KE	2:2 ✺
21.12.24	Deusto - Basconia	1:0 ✺
15.12.24	Basconia - Durango	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWTLW

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