Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 28

Date: 29 March 2026, Sunday


	Aretxabaleta		Portugalete

	1	X	2
	4.85	3.8	1.55
	5.55	3.86	1.55
	5.47	3.89	1.55
	5.5	3.5	1.53
	6.1	3.75	1.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.49 ↓ (5.82)	3.76 ↓ (3.89)	1.53 ↑ (1.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aretxabaleta
16.5%

Draw
24.2%

Portugalete
59.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.6%

23.3%

61.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.3%

22.9%

62.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aretxabaleta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Portugalete has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aretxabaleta than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portugalete than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Aretxabaleta - Portugalete Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Aretxabaleta has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Portugalete is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Portugalete may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Portugalete is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Aretxabaleta won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 1:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Aretxabaleta won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	UD Aretxabaleta	5	2	2	1	4:3	1	8

Last Results with these Odds

Portugalete - the odds 1.48 are the expected chance of winning is 61.14%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Aretxabaleta
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
22.03.26	San Ignacio - Aretxabaleta	0:1 ✺
15.03.26	Aretxabaleta - Derio	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Touring KE - Aretxabaleta	0:0 ✺
01.03.26	Aretxabaleta - Alavés C	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Aretxabaleta	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WLTWL
- Club Portugalete
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
19.03.26	Portugalete - Zamudio	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Santurtzi - Portugalete	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Portugalete - Real Sociedad C	4:0 ✺
28.02.26	Pasaia - Portugalete	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Portugalete - Lagun Onak	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
16.11.25	Portugalete - Aretxabaleta	3:2
10.05.25	Portugalete - Aretxabaleta	2:1
12.01.25	Aretxabaleta - Portugalete	0:2

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