Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 16

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Aretxabaleta		Santurtzi

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.95	2.87
	2.34	3.06	3
	2.3	2.9	2.9
	2.27	3.06	3
	2.3	3	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 (2.3)	2.99 ↑ (2.95)	2.95 ↑ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aretxabaleta
39.2%

Draw
30.2%

Santurtzi
30.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.7%

30.2%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

30.8%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aretxabaleta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Santurtzi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aretxabaleta than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santurtzi than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Aretxabaleta - Santurtzi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
20', 1 - 0, ⚽,
21', 1 - 1, Hierro I. ⚽,
32', 1 - 2, Hernandez B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11 and 12).

Aretxabaleta has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Santurtzi has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Aretxabaleta won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Aretxabaleta won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	UD Aretxabaleta	8	4	2	2	10:7	3	14
14	Santurtzi	8	3	0	5	6:10	-4	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Aretxabaleta
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
20.12.25	Real Sociedad C - Aretxabaleta	2:0 ✺
14.12.25	Aretxabaleta - Pasaia	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Lagun Onak - Aretxabaleta	2:0 ✺
23.11.25	Aretxabaleta - Deusto	0:2 ✺
16.11.25	Portugalete - Aretxabaleta	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LWLLL
- CD Santurtzi
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
20.12.25	Santurtzi - Zamudio	2:0 ✺
14.12.25	Santurtzi - Zarautz KE	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Real Sociedad C - Santurtzi	2:0 ✺
22.11.25	Santurtzi - Pasaia	1:3 ✺
16.11.25	Lagun Onak - Santurtzi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
09.03.25	Aretxabaleta - Santurtzi	1:1
27.10.24	Santurtzi - Aretxabaleta	0:0

Aretxabaleta - Santurtzi