Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 12

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday


	Aretxabaleta		Deusto

	1	X	2
	2.18	2.98	3.15
	2.10	3.09	3.57	Watch
	2.2	3.04	3.15
	2.16	3.15	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 (2.16)	3.07 ↓ (3.15)	3.26 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aretxabaleta
42.2%

Draw
29.8%

Deusto
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

29.2%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Aretxabaleta have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Deusto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aretxabaleta than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deusto than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Aretxabaleta - Deusto Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
74', 0 - 1, Jonlo ⚽,
81', 0 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 7 and 14).

Aretxabaleta has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Deusto is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Aretxabaleta might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Aretxabaleta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Aretxabaleta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Aretxabaleta
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
16.11.25	Portugalete - Aretxabaleta	3:2 ✺
09.11.25	Aretxabaleta - San Ignacio	0:0 ✺
31.10.25	Derio - Aretxabaleta	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	Aretxabaleta - Touring KE	1:1 ✺
12.10.25	Aretxabaleta - Aurrerá de Vitoria	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LTLTW
- SD Deusto
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
16.11.25	Deusto - Zamudio	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	Santurtzi - Deusto	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Deusto - Real Sociedad C	1:3 ✺
25.10.25	Pasaia - Deusto	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Deusto - Lagun Onak	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
16.04.25	Aretxabaleta - Deusto	2:0
07.12.24	Deusto - Aretxabaleta	1:0

Aretxabaleta - Deusto: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide