Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 11

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday


	Portugalete		Aretxabaleta

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.46	4.05	5.5
	1.48	4.18	5.81
	2.01	3.29	3.56	Watch
	1.44	3.96	6.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.45)	3.87 ↓ (4)	5.33 ↓ (6.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portugalete
58.4%

Draw
24.1%

Aretxabaleta
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.7%

22.7%

14.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64%

22.2%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portugalete has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Aretxabaleta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portugalete than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Portugalete, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aretxabaleta than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Portugalete - Aretxabaleta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, ⚽,
21', 1 - 1, Cuello Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
66', 2 - 1, ⚽,
81', 2 - 2, ⚽,
89', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 6).

Portugalete is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Aretxabaleta has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Aretxabaleta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Portugalete is a strong favorite.

We predict that Portugalete will win today's game, with odds of 1.6.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Portugalete won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Portugalete won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Portugalete
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
08.11.25	Zamudio - Portugalete	0:3 ✺
02.11.25	Portugalete - Santurtzi	4:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.25	Portugalete - Valladolid	1:0 ✺
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
26.10.25	Real Sociedad C - Portugalete	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Portugalete - Pasaia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 36.8 WWWWL
- UD Aretxabaleta
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
09.11.25	Aretxabaleta - San Ignacio	0:0 ✺
31.10.25	Derio - Aretxabaleta	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	Aretxabaleta - Touring KE	1:1 ✺
12.10.25	Aretxabaleta - Aurrerá de Vitoria	4:2 ✺
05.10.25	Leioa - Aretxabaleta	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
10.05.25	Portugalete - Aretxabaleta	2:1
12.01.25	Aretxabaleta - Portugalete	0:2

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