Match Info

Primera B - Round 11

Date: 14 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Juan Carlos Brieva (Merlo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Argentino de Merlo		Excursionistas

	1	X	2
	2.62	2.88	2.62	Watch
	2.69	2.89	2.77
	2.66	2.87	2.71	Watch
	2.7	2.63	2.7
	2.64	2.75	2.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 (2.66)	2.8 ↓ (2.87)	2.7 ↓ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Argentino de Merlo
34.1%

Draw
32.4%

Excursionistas
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

31.9%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

33.6%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Argentino de Merlo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Excursionistas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Argentino de Merlo than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excursionistas than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Argentino de Merlo - Excursionistas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tello Cabrera A. N. (G) 7. Jerez T. 3. Lopez F. 6. Lopez V. 11. Martin B. 9. Moreira L. 8. Romero L. 10. Scisci G. 5. Sica N. 2. Tamborelli E. 4. Ursino D.	1. Rodriguez N. (G) 8. Alaniz M. 3. Arango M. 11. Arbello I. 5. Avalos A. 10. Blanco M. 4. Fernandez M. 2. Igarzabal H. 6. Pedrosa G. 7. Pereyra J. 9. Polvera M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
44', 1 - 0, Sica N. ⚽,
45+5', 1 - 1, Fernandez M. ⚽,
45+11', Sica N. 🟥,
45+11', Tamborelli E. 🟨,
45+11', Avalos A. 🟥,
45+12', Blanco M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jerez T. ↓, Scisci G. ↑,
46', Ortiz J. ↓, Medina C. ↑,
52', Blanco M. ↓, Cardozo M. ↑,
64', Polvera M. ↓, Tellas G. ↑,
64', Pereyra J. ↓, Damiolini N. ↑,
64', Arbello I. ↓, Scaramuzzi E. ↑,
70', Ursino D. ↓, Salvador A. ↑,
74', Monge L. ↓, Cohen E. ↑,
74', Martin B. ↓, Paulovich T. ↑,
80', Igarzabal H. 🟨,
86', Alaniz M. ↓, Pereyra O. ↑,
90+4', Medina C. 🟨,
90+6', Scaramuzzi E. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 3-1. Aggregate: 7-1. 2nd leg.

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Argentino de Merlo won 3.

Argentino de Merlo has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Excursionistas is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Argentino de Merlo won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:12. (average 1.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Argentino de Merlo won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:3. (average 2:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Excursionistas	38	22	8	8	59:30	29	74
14	Argentino de Merlo	38	11	11	16	33:39	-6	44

Last Results with these Odds

Excursionistas - the odds 2.71 are the expected chance of winning is 33.75%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Argentino de Merlo
Argentinian Primera B
10.04.26	Arsenal Sarandí - Argentino de Merlo	3:0 ✺
03.04.26	Ituzaingó - Argentino de Merlo	0:1 ✺
29.03.26	Argentino de Merlo - Talleres de Remedios de Escalada	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Deportivo Laferrere - Argentino de Merlo	1:3 ✺
14.03.26	Argentino de Merlo - Brown de Adrogué	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWLWT
- CA Excursionistas
Argentinian Primera B
10.04.26	Excursionistas - Talleres de Remedios de Escalada	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Deportivo Laferrere - Excursionistas	1:0 ✺
28.03.26	Excursionistas - Brown de Adrogué	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Deportivo Armenio - Excursionistas	0:2 ✺
14.03.26	Excursionistas - Deportivo Flandria	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera B
28.11.25	Argentino de Merlo - Excursionistas	4:0
21.11.25	Excursionistas - Argentino de Merlo	1:3
05.07.25	Argentino de Merlo - Excursionistas	2:1
15.02.25	Excursionistas - Argentino de Merlo	0:0
06.07.24	Argentino de Merlo - Excursionistas	2:2
17.02.24	Excursionistas - Argentino de Merlo	0:0
Argentinian Primera C
09.09.22	Excursionistas - Argentino de Merlo	1:1

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