Match Info

Cyprus League - Championship Group - Round 36

Date: 22 May 2026, Friday

Location: Alphamega Stadium (Kolossi)

Referee: Konstantinidis A. (Cyp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2


	Aris Limassol		AEK Larnaca

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.2	2.2
	2.2	3.55	2.82
	2.2	3.93	2.98
	2.35	3.96	2.59	Watch
	2.15	3.5	2.75
	2.21	3.68	2.86	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.74)	3.64 ↑ (3.29)	2.7 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aris Limassol
40%

Draw
25.6%

AEK Larnaca
34.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

28.4%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

27.8%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aris Limassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aris Limassol's performance.

AEK Larnaca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aris Limassol than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aris Limassol that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEK Larnaca than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	50%	21.4%

Aris Limassol - AEK Larnaca Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Aris Limassol will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). AEK Larnaca will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vana Alves (G) 27. Balogun L. 18. Bourhane Y. 12. Dimitriou A. 88. Fi Akamba C. 29. Gaustad D. 30. Gustavo Paje 28. Kastanos G. 9. Kokorin A. 66. Montnor J. 19. Sane M.	51. Paraskevas A. (G) 11. Bajic R. 86. Cardero A. 22. Ekpolo G. 2. Ioannou P. 25. Kyriakou C. 41. Mathias Gonzalez 15. Milicevic H. 21. Miramon 29. Naoum G. 27. Roberge V.
Substitutes
99. Effaghe R. 40. Ergas R. 80. Kakoullis A. 2. Kalulu G. 45. McCausland R. 38. Melas G. 36. Neokleous V. 42. Panagiotou A. 26. Pishias A. (G) 39. Pourikkos S. 90. Sofroniou E. (G) 41. Trimintis G.	1. Alomerovic Z. (G) 14. Garcia A. 37. Gerasimou D. 6. Jimmy Suarez 12. Komar K. (G) 7. Ledes Gustavo 36. Loukaidis C. 17. Pons P. 4. Saborit E. 40. Strouthou K. 35. Thoma C.
Coaches
Louka L.	Rozada J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', Kastanos G. 🟨,
25', Balogun L. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Milicevic H. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (3 - 3)
52', Gustavo Paje 🟨,
55', 0 - 2, Bajic R. ⚽,
58', Miramon ↓, Thoma C. ↑,
60', 0 - 3, Cardero A. ⚽,
60', Dimitriou A. ↓, Kalulu G. ↑,
60', Gaustad D. ↓, Kakoullis A. ↑,
61', Gustavo Paje ↓, Effaghe R. ↑,
65', 1 - 3, Kokorin A. ⚽,
69', Cardero A. ↓, Loukaidis C. ↑,
69', Naoum G. ↓, Gerasimou D. ↑,
72', Sane M. 🟨,
73', Ekpolo G. 🟨,
73', Vana Alves ↓, Sofroniou E. ↑,
77', 2 - 3, Montnor J. ⚽,
80', Paraskevas A. ↓, Komar K. ↑,
80', Mathias Gonzalez ↓, Pons P. ↑,
83', 3 - 3, Kakoullis A. ⚽,
90', 3 - 4, Bajic R. ⚽,
90+1', Montnor J. ↓, Trimintis G. ↑,

Preview

AEK Larnaca is Qualified for Conference League (Qualification )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aris Limassol won 2.

Aris Limassol is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

AEK Larnaca has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Aris Limassol has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Aris Limassol: Gomis Y. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in AEK Larnaca: Amyn Y. (Hamstring Injury) Cabrera E. (Knee Injury) Chacon Y. (Knee Injury) Ivanovic D. (Red Card) Rubio W. (Muscle Injury) Saborit E. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Aris Limassol won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:21. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Aris Limassol won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:4. (average 1.4:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	AEK Larnaca	4	3	0	1	9:4	5	9
8	Aris	4	1	2	1	4:6	-2	5

Last Results with these Odds

Aris Limassol - the odds 2.74 are the expected chance of winning is 34.09%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aris Limassol FC
Cypriot First Division
16.05.26	Apollon Limassol - Aris Limassol	3:2 ✺
10.05.26	Paphos - Aris Limassol	2:0 ✺
06.05.26	Aris Limassol - APOEL	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Omonia - Aris Limassol	3:0 ✺
25.04.26	AEK Larnaca - Aris Limassol	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLWLL
- AEK Larnaca
Cypriot First Division
16.05.26	AEK Larnaca - Paphos	2:2 ✺
10.05.26	Omonia - AEK Larnaca	1:1 ✺
06.05.26	AEK Larnaca - Apollon Limassol	1:0 ✺
03.05.26	APOEL - AEK Larnaca	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	AEK Larnaca - Aris Limassol	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Cypriot First Division
25.04.26	AEK Larnaca - Aris Limassol	2:0
10.01.26	Aris Limassol - AEK Larnaca	1:0
22.09.25	AEK Larnaca - Aris Limassol	3:2
27.04.25	Aris Limassol - AEK Larnaca	1:0
29.03.25	AEK Larnaca - Aris Limassol	1:1
09.02.25	Aris Limassol - AEK Larnaca	1:1
03.11.24	AEK Larnaca - Aris Limassol	2:0

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