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Current Win Probability
Aris Limassol 34.7%
Draw 28.2%
AEK Larnaca 37%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
30.8%
27.4%
41.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
29.7%
26.4%
43.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Aris Limassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)
AEK Larnaca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aris Limassol than the current prediction. (-5%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEK Larnaca than the current prediction. (+6.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AEK Larnaca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Aris Limassol - AEK Larnaca Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
91. Zadro M. (G) 7. Anderson Correia 8. Charalampous C. 11. Effaghe R. 70. El Allachi C. 29. Gaustad D. 24. Kalulu G. 17. Matysik M. 22. Nikolic V. 6. Sarfo A. 20. Yago S. (C)
92. Paleari A. (G) 11. Bajic R. 22. Ekpolo G. 23. Kohler S. 14. Layouni A. 7. Ledes Gustavo 15. Milicevic H. (C) 21. Miramon 28. Mrabti K. 20. Repas J. 4. Saborit E.
Substitutes
46. Dimitriou G. (G) 23. Folha B. 21. Galyata D. 30. Gustavo Paje 16. Lebi O. 5. Lelle D. 78. Ovsyannikov D. 19. Sane M. 18. Szakos B. 75. Theodosiou M. 1. Vana Alves (G) 99. Werton
44. Adoni Z. 33. Andereggen N. 37. Gerasimou D. 2. Ioannou P. 9. Ivanovic D. 25. Kyriakou C. 29. Naoum G. 5. Olivan B. 6. Pankov I. 51. Paraskevas A. (G) 19. Trica A. 3. van der Hoorn M.
Coaches
Radkov A.
Selles R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Nikolic V. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Kohler S. 🟨,
61', Miramon ↓, Ioannou P. ↑,
61', Repas J. ↓, Andereggen N. ↑,
68', Mrabti K. 🟨,
68', Nikolic V. ↓, Gustavo Paje ↑,
73', Kohler S. ↓, Pankov I. ↑,
73', Layouni A. ↓, Ivanovic D. ↑,
76', El Allachi C. ↓, Werton ↑,
82', Werton 🟨,
83', Saborit E. ↓, Olivan B. ↑,
87', Gaustad D. ↓, Sane M. ↑,
87', Gustavo Paje ↓, Folha B. ↑,
90', Charalampous C. 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 1, Andereggen N. ⚽,
Preview
An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 6th in the Promotion - Cyprus League (Championship Group: ) and 2nd in the Promotion - Cyprus League (Championship Group: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aris Limassol won 2.
Both teams enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.
AEK Larnaca could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Recently, AEK Larnaca has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
Confirmed absences for Aris Limassol: Foderingham W.
(Ankle Injury)
Theodosiou M.
(Injury)
Werton
(Red Card).
Confirmed absences for AEK Larnaca: Amyn Y.
(Foot Injury)
Cabrera E.
(Knee Injury)
Chacon Y.
(Inactive)
Olivan B.
(Inactive).
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Aris Limassol has recorded 6 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 26:25 (averaging 1.3:1.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Aris Limassol against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with 16:8 goals (averaging 1.6:0.8 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
1
AEK Larnaca
7
5
1
1
13:5
8
16
6
Aris
7
3
3
1
10:9
1
12
Last Results with these Odds
Aris Limassol - the odds 3.03 are the expected chance of winning is 30.79%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.
Cyprus
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Zadro M. (G) 
Anderson Correia 
Effaghe R. 
El Allachi C. 
Gaustad D. 
Kalulu G. 
Matysik M. 
Nikolic V. 
Sarfo A. 
Yago S. (C) 
Paleari A. (G) 
Bajic R. 
Ekpolo G. 
Kohler S. 
Layouni A. 
Ledes Gustavo 
Miramon 
Mrabti K. 
Repas J. 
Galyata D. 
Gustavo Paje 
Sane M. 
Szakos B. 
Andereggen N. 
Pankov I. 
Trica A. 
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