Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 10

Date: 14 April 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona (Avellaneda)

Referee: Comesana L. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Arsenal Sarandí		Patronato Parana

	1	X	2
	2.9	2.8	2.75	Watch
	2.6	2.75	2.85
	2.85	2.8	2.65	Watch
	3	2.71	2.76	Watch
	2.5	2.8	3
	2.9	2.71	2.66
	2.85	2.8	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.68)	2.77 ↓ (2.79)	2.76 ↓ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal Sarandí
33%

Draw
33.4%

Patronato Parana
33.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

33.3%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

33.2%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal Sarandí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Patronato Parana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Sarandí than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Patronato Parana than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	69.2%	23.1%

Arsenal Sarandí - Patronato Parana Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Arsenal Sarandí will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Patronato will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 69.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pourtau J. (G) 4. Vera M. 2. Roselli N. 6. Sosa A. 3. Cocca M. 5. Colletta T. 8. Rius C. 11. Stringa A. 10. Fernandez E. 7. Bordagaray F. 9. Klusener G.	1. Chaves I. (G) 4. Rueda M. 2. Diaz G. 6. Bellatti S. D. N. 3. Navas J. 8. Barinaga J. 5. Gallucci S. 10. Pereyra V. L. 7. Castro F. 9. Bonansea A. 11. Marcioni J.
Substitutes
14. Bernardi B. 17. Flores M. 16. Frascone N. 12. Mekbel F. (G) 19. Purita E. 20. Sabatini I. 15. Serrano V. 13. Trombini M. 18. Vila J.	14. Asis G. 20. Barolin J. 12. Mazza J. (G) 18. Miro A. 17. Nievas B. 16. Pacco L. 19. Pardo M. 15. Picco A. R. 13. Varela J.
Coaches
Viscovich G.	Gomez G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Marcioni J. ⚽,
26', Bellatti S. D. N. 🟨,
39', Gallucci S. ↓, Picco A. R. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rius C. ↓, Serrano V. ↑,
46', Fernandez E. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
55', Barinaga J. 🟨,
59', Cocca M. ↓, Sabatini I. ↑,
59', Stringa A. ↓, Trombini M. ↑,
64', Barinaga J. ↓, Nievas B. ↑,
77', Vera M. 🟨,
81', Serrano V. 🟨,
81', Marcioni J. ↓, Pardo M. ↑,
82', Pereyra V. L. ↓, Pacco L. ↑,
87', Colletta T. ↓, Purita E. ↑,
88', Picco A. R. 🟨,
90+3', Trombini M. 🟨,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arsenal Sarandí won 2.

Arsenal Sarandí is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Patronato is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Arsenal Sarandí won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10:9 (average 1.3:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Arsenal Sarandí won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:3 (average 1.7:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Arsenal Sarandí - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34.61%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal Sarandí
Argentinian Primera Nacional
07.04.25	Ferro Carril Oeste - Arsenal Sarandí	2:0 ✺
30.03.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Club Almagro	2:2 ✺
22.03.25	San Miguel - Arsenal Sarandí	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Quilmes	0:1 ✺
09.03.25	Racing de Córdoba - Arsenal Sarandí	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LTTLL
- Patronato Parana
Argentinian Primera Nacional
07.04.25	Patronato Parana - All Boys	3:1 ✺
30.03.25	Alvarado - Patronato Parana	3:1 ✺
23.03.25	Patronato Parana - Deportivo Madryn	0:0 ✺
16.03.25	Deportivo Maipú - Patronato Parana	1:1 ✺
09.03.25	Patronato Parana - Gimnasia y Tiro	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
12.10.24	Arsenal Sarandí - Patronato Parana	2:0
26.05.24	Patronato Parana - Arsenal Sarandí	0:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
09.07.22	Patronato Parana - Arsenal Sarandí	0:1
09.08.21	Arsenal Sarandí - Patronato Parana	2:2
03.02.20	Patronato Parana - Arsenal Sarandí	2:2
09.04.18	Arsenal Sarandí - Patronato Parana	1:1
10.03.17	Patronato Parana - Arsenal Sarandí	4:2

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