Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 8

Date: 30 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio José María Minella (Mar del Plata)

Referee: Vinas N. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Alvarado		Patronato Parana

	1	X	2
	2.05	3	4.2	Watch
	2.1	2.85	3.75
	2.05	3.15	3.6	Watch
	2.07	3.12	3.84	Watch
	2.1	2.8	3.9
	2.02	3.13	3.74
	2.05	3.15	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.2)	3.03 ↑ (2.7)	3.8 ↓ (4.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alvarado
45%

Draw
30.6%

Patronato Parana
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

34.5%

23.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

33.3%

22.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alvarado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Patronato Parana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Patronato Parana than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	75%	12.5%

Alvarado - Patronato Parana Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Alvarado will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Patronato will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Henricot F. (G) 4. Werro V. 2. Blasi B. (C) 6. Monzon L. 3. Aleo A. 8. Gobetto J. 5. Bolivar A. 11. Russo F. 10. Borgnino M. 7. Bergara M. 9. Ortiz D.	1. Chaves I. (G) 4. Navas J. 2. Diaz G. 6. Diaz F. N. 3. Moreno E. 5. Gallucci S. 10. Pereyra V. L. 8. Nievas B. 11. Pardo M. 7. Marcioni J. 9. Bonansea A.
Substitutes
15. Ascacibar J. 20. Bolzicco T. 12. Gomez Riga E. F. (G) 13. James J. 16. Mansilla M. 17. Martinez Candia C. A. 19. Miori M. 14. Ortale M. 18. Vega F.	14. Asis G. 16. Barinaga J. 20. Barolin J. 19. Castro F. 12. Mazza J. (G) 13. Moreyra F. 15. Picco A. R. 18. Rueda M. 17. Sombra A.
Coaches
Quattrocchi P.	Gomez G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Monzon L. ⚽, Gobetto J. (A),
13', Monzon L. 🟨,
26', Pereyra V. L. 🟨,
35', 1 - 1, Diaz G. ⚽, Moreno E. (A),
45', Diaz G. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Diaz F. N. ↓, Moreyra F. ↑,
46', Pereyra V. L. ↓, Castro F. ↑,
50', 2 - 1, Gobetto J. ⚽, Aleo A. (A),
54', Bonansea A. ↓, Rueda M. ↑,
54', Nievas B. ↓, Barinaga J. ↑,
61', Russo F. ↓, Ascacibar J. ↑,
64', 3 - 1, Ortiz D. ⚽, Borgnino M. (A),
65', Borgnino M. ↓, Vega F. ↑,
66', Gobetto J. ↓, James J. ↑,
79', Ortiz D. ↓, Bolzicco T. ↑,
79', Bergara M. ↓, Miori M. ↑,
90+1', Navas J. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 14).

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Alvarado will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Alvarado won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:7 (average 1.8:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Alvarado won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:0 (average 2:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Primera Nacional
23.03.25	Ferro Carril Oeste - Alvarado	0:0 ✺
16.03.25	Alvarado - Club Almagro	1:1 ✺
09.03.25	San Miguel - Alvarado	2:0 ✺
02.03.25	Alvarado - Quilmes	0:0 ✺
24.02.25	Racing de Córdoba - Alvarado	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TTLTL
- Patronato Parana
Argentinian Primera Nacional
23.03.25	Patronato Parana - Deportivo Madryn	0:0 ✺
16.03.25	Deportivo Maipú - Patronato Parana	1:1 ✺
09.03.25	Patronato Parana - Gimnasia y Tiro	0:0 ✺
01.03.25	Tristán Suárez - Patronato Parana	2:0 ✺
23.02.25	Patronato Parana - San Martín de Tucumán	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
28.07.24	Patronato Parana - Alvarado	1:3
10.03.24	Alvarado - Patronato Parana	2:0
08.07.23	Alvarado - Patronato Parana	2:0
06.03.23	Patronato Parana - Alvarado	6:0

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