Match Info

ARGENTINA: Primera Nacional - Round 7

Date: 22 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Malvinas Argentinas (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Broggi J. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports, TyC Sports Play
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	San Miguel		Arsenal Sarandí

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.7	6.5	Watch
	1.53	3.4	7
	1.55	3.45	6.8	Watch
	1.58	3.41	7.11	Watch
	1.53	3.4	7
	1.57	3.69	6.23	Watch
	1.55	3.45	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.65)	3.5 ↑ (3.39)	6.78 ↑ (5.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Miguel
59.8%

Draw
26.5%

Arsenal Sarandí
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

27.3%

16.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

26.1%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Miguel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Arsenal Sarandí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Miguel than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with San Miguel that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Sarandí than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

San Miguel - Arsenal Sarandí Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sappa D. (G) 4. Peruzzi G. 2. Kippes A. 6. Parnisari E. 3. Grance I. 7. Parisi L. 5. Erbes C. 8. Rojas M. 10. Mosca C. 9. Nasta B. 11. Dening E.	1. Pourtau J. (G) 4. Vera M. 2. Roselli N. 6. Cocca M. 3. Cabrera I. 8. Serrano V. 5. Vila J. 10. Fernandez E. 11. Lucero M. 7. Sabatini I. 9. Klusener G.
Substitutes
18. Aleman B. 17. Almada A. 14. Antunes I. 15. Ferrero J. 13. Ihitz N. 19. Juarez J. 20. Lavezzi A. 12. Lungarzo J. (G) 16. Sena F.	19. Bordagaray F. 17. Flores M. 16. Frascone N. 14. Gissi D. 20. Lopez M. 12. Mekbel F. (G) 15. Purita E. 18. Rius C. 13. Stringa A.
Coaches
Battaglia S.	Rolon M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', Mosca C. 🟨,
31', Serrano V. 🟨,
33', Kippes A. 🟨,
40', Klusener G. 🟨,
45+3', 0 - 1, Sabatini I. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Mosca C. ↓, Lavezzi A. ↑,
56', Fernandez E. 🟨,
57', Vera M. 🟨,
62', Dening E. ↓, Ferrero J. ↑,
62', Parisi L. ↓, Aleman B. ↑,
68', Lucero M. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
68', Fernandez E. ↓, Frascone N. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Ferrero J. ⚽,
78', Serrano V. ↓, Rius C. ↑,
78', Klusener G. ↓, Lopez M. ↑,
86', Nasta B. ↓, Almada A. ↑,
86', Rojas M. ↓, Juarez J. ↑,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 16).

Recent matches San Miguel is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Arsenal Sarandí is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Arsenal Sarandí could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match San Miguel is absolute favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches San Miguel won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:1 (average 1.5:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams San Miguel won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA San Miguel
Argentinian Primera Nacional
14.03.25	All Boys - San Miguel	2:1 ✺
09.03.25	San Miguel - Alvarado	2:0 ✺
02.03.25	Deportivo Madryn - San Miguel	2:1 ✺
22.02.25	San Miguel - Deportivo Maipú	2:0 ✺
16.02.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - San Miguel	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWLWL
- Arsenal Sarandí
Argentinian Primera Nacional
15.03.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Quilmes	0:1 ✺
09.03.25	Racing de Córdoba - Arsenal Sarandí	3:0 ✺
28.02.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Atlanta Buenos Aires	1:1 ✺
22.02.25	Colegiales - Arsenal Sarandí	1:1 ✺
16.02.25	Arsenal Sarandí - Los Andes	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
20.07.24	San Miguel - Arsenal Sarandí	3:0
03.03.24	Arsenal Sarandí - San Miguel	1:0

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