Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 20 July 2023, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: DG Arena (Podgorica) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Derevinskyi O. (Ukr)


	Arsenal Tivat		Alashkert

	1	X	2
	5	3.8	1.57	Watch
	4.75	3.6	1.65
	4.25	3.6	1.68
	4.33	3.8	1.71
	4.46	3.93	1.71
	4.61	4.1	1.71	Watch
	4.65	3.7	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.58 ↑ (3.5)	3.79 ↑ (3.5)	1.68 ↓ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal Tivat
20.2%

Draw
24.5%

Alashkert
55.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

26.7%

46.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.3%

47.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal Tivat has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arsenal Tivat's form might have worsened.

Alashkert has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alashkert's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Tivat than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arsenal Tivat, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alashkert than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alashkert, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.3%	7.1%	88.6%

Arsenal Tivat - Alashkert Predictions

Users Predictions: Alashkert will win (62 of 70 users predict this - 88.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.12% – 96.02%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Puletic D. (G) 26. Zivkovic R. 16. Manojlovic C. (C) 3. Celebic N. 29. Cavor M. 6. Kascelan V. 8. Sahman I. 21. Kojasevic D. 10. Mirkovic J. 11. Montenegro J. 9. Djordjevic B.	22. Cancarevic O. (G) 77. Muzek M. 33. Ustinov V. 3. Voskanyan T. (C) 27. Carrillo D. 10. Khurtsidze D. 99. Racines Y. B. 20. Gareginyan Y. 21. Flores Barrios R. D. 95. Agdon 5. Angulo W.
Substitutes
12. Cetkovic D. (G) 31. Kuc A. (G) 20. Macanovic A. 4. Malisic P. 13. Maras L. 14. Mugosa D. 25. Nikac D. 27. Tabajica M. 23. Todorovic M.	71. Aivazov A. (G) 2. Grigoryan S. 8. Ivanov S. 15. Khachatryan A. 9. Kutalia L. 4. Mensah A. 98. Mimito 7. Nalbandyan K. 11. Shahinyan S. 17. Yedigaryan A.
Coaches
Tripkovic Z.	Gevorgyan V.

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-1.

Arsenal Tivat has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Alashkert is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Alashkert is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Arsenal Tivat won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal Tivat
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.07.23	Alashkert - Arsenal Tivat	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
29.06.23	Zvijezda Brgule - Arsenal Tivat	Canceled ✺
27.06.23	Radnički 1923 - Arsenal Tivat	2:1 ✺
24.06.23	Željezničar Sarajevo - Arsenal Tivat	2:0 ✺
Montenegrin Cup
29.05.23	Arsenal Tivat - Sutjeska	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 T?LLL
- Alashkert FC
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.07.23	Alashkert - Arsenal Tivat	1:1 ✺
Armenian Premier League
06.06.23	Alashkert - Pyunik	1:2 ✺
31.05.23	Van - Alashkert	0:1 ✺
27.05.23	Alashkert - Urartu Yerevan	3:2 ✺
21.05.23	Shirak Gyumri - Alashkert	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
13.07.23	Alashkert - Arsenal Tivat	1:1

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