Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE D - PLAY OFFS - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 5 August 2023, Saturday


	Athletic Club		Brasiliense

	1	X	2
	2	3.1	3.3
	2.02	2.95	3.55
	2.1	2.85	3.6
	2.06	3.13	3.56
	2	3.25	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (1.83)	3.06 ↓ (3.25)	3.48 ↓ (4.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
44.4%

Draw
29.6%

Brasiliense
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.6%

27.9%

22.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.1%

27.1%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletic Club's form might have worsened.

Brasiliense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletic Club, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brasiliense than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Athletic Club - Brasiliense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-0.

Now both teams are in good shape.

Recently Brasiliense have a series of home games.

Athletic will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Athletic won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Athletic won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie D
30.07.23	Brasiliense - Athletic Club	0:2 ✺
23.07.23	Athletic Club - Nova Iguaçu	3:1 ✺
15.07.23	Portuguesa RJ - Athletic Club	1:0 ✺
08.07.23	Athletic Club - Democrata GV	1:0 ✺
01.07.23	Noroeste - Athletic Club	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWLWW
- Brasiliense FC
Brazilian Serie D
30.07.23	Brasiliense - Athletic Club	0:2 ✺
23.07.23	Brasiliense - Operário Ltda	4:1 ✺
15.07.23	Anápolis - Brasiliense	0:0 ✺
10.07.23	Brasiliense - Interporto	10:0 ✺
02.07.23	Brasiliense - Real Ariquemes	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
30.07.23	Brasiliense - Athletic Club	0:2
Copa do Brasil
01.03.23	Athletic Club - Brasiliense	1:1

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