Match Info

BRAZIL: Mineiro - 5th-8th places - Semi-finals

Date: 21 February 2025, Friday

Location: Estádio Joaquim Portugal (Minas Gerais)


	Athletic Club		Democrata GV

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.47	3.7	6.4	Watch
	1.49	3.85	7.49
	1.46	3.81	7.07	Watch
	1.44	3.75	7
	1.44	3.95	7.43	Watch
	1.47	3.7	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.6)	3.79 ↓ (3.95)	6.97 ↑ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Club
62.7%

Draw
24.2%

Democrata GV
13.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

23.5%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

23.5%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Club has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Democrata GV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Democrata GV might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Democrata GV than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Democrata GV could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Athletic Club - Democrata GV Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Diego Vitor (G) 52. Wesley Gasolina 3. Edson Miranda 4. Sidimar 6. Yuri (C) 5. Dourado 10. David Braga 8. Amorim 7. Welinton Torrao 9. Lincoln 20. Alason Carioca	1. Thulio (G) 2. Lucas Lima 3. Donato (C) 4. Lula 6. Wender 10. Luann 8. Caetano 13. Luanderson 7. Murilo Rosa 11. Wallace 9. Gutinho
Substitutes
22. Caua 13. Davi 2. Douglas Pele 12. Eduardo Freire (G) 23. Gustavo Silva 18. Iarley 21. Mateus Goncalves 17. Nathan 19. Neto Costa	15. Antonio Junior 18. Cleidson 16. Dominy 12. Esio (G) 5. Felipe Alves 21. Indio 17. Juan Carlos 19. Lucas Gabriel 20. Marcolino N. 14. Thiago Washington
Coaches
Roger Silva	Wladimir Araujo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', Amorim 🟨,
36', 1 - 0, Welinton Torrao ⚽, Yuri (A),
42', Welinton Torrao 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Lucas Lima 🟨,
59', Caetano ↓, Marcolino N. ↑,
59', Murilo Rosa ↓, Juan Carlos ↑,
60', Wallace ↓, Cleidson ↑,
63', Lucas Lima ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
65', Luanderson ↓, Antonio Junior ↑,
68', Lincoln ↓, Gustavo Silva ↑,
68', Alason Carioca ↓, Nathan ↑,
77', Welinton Torrao ↓, Douglas Pele ↑,
80', Wesley Gasolina 🟨,
82', Lucas Evangelista 🟨,
83', Yuri 🟨,
90+1', Cleidson 🟨,
90+3', Yuri (Pen),
90+4', Donato 🟨,
90+6', Nathan 🟨,
90+8', Wesley Gasolina ↓, Neto Costa ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-0.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Athletic won 2.

Athletic is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Democrata GV is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Athletic is absolute favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Athletic won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:3 (average 1:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Athletic won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:1 (average 1.7:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
16.02.25	Democrata GV - Athletic Club	0:0 ✺
12.02.25	Athletic Club - Betim	1:4 ✺
09.02.25	Uberlândia - Athletic Club	3:0 ✺
04.02.25	Atlético Mineiro - Athletic Club	1:0 ✺
01.02.25	Athletic Club - Tombense	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TLLLW
- Democrata de Governador Valadares
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
16.02.25	Democrata GV - Athletic Club	0:0 ✺
12.02.25	Democrata GV - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
09.02.25	Aymorés - Democrata GV	0:1 ✺
06.02.25	Uberlândia - Democrata GV	0:1 ✺
02.02.25	Democrata GV - Pouso Alegre	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.5 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
16.02.25	Democrata GV - Athletic Club	0:0
Brazilian Serie D
08.07.23	Athletic Club - Democrata GV	1:0
22.05.23	Democrata GV - Athletic Club	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
03.02.23	Democrata GV - Athletic Club	1:1
19.02.22	Athletic Club - Democrata GV	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro 2
24.10.20	Athletic Club - Democrata GV	3:1

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