Match Info

Serie D - Group I - Round 18

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Vivo Azzurro TV


	Athletic Palermo		ACR Messina

	1	X	2
	1.88	3.1	3.7
	1.82	3.15	4.05
	1.77	3.26	4.54
	1.7	3.2	4.6
	1.68	3.54	5.2
	1.66	3.33	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (2.35)	3.26 ↓ (3.4)	4.52 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Palermo
52%

Draw
27.9%

ACR Messina
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

26.6%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

26.9%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Palermo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Athletic Palermo's performance.

ACR Messina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and ACR Messina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Palermo than the current prediction. (-13.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Athletic Palermo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ACR Messina than the current prediction. (+14.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that ACR Messina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Athletic Palermo - ACR Messina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Anzelmo D. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
51', 2 - 0, Grillo P. ⚽,
60', 3 - 0, Grillo P. ⚽,
72', 4 - 0, Grillo P. ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group I (Play Offs: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Athletic Palermo is the team to beat.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Athletic Palermo	6	2	2	2	9:8	1	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Palermo
Italian Serie D - Group I
21.12.25	Athletic Palermo - Ragusa	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Savoia - Athletic Palermo	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Athletic Palermo - Vibonese	2:2 ✺
30.11.25	Castrumfavara - Athletic Palermo	1:2 ✺
26.11.25	Athletic Palermo - Nissa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLTWL
- ACR Messina
Italian Serie D - Group I
21.12.25	Milazzo - ACR Messina	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	ACR Messina - Igea Virtus Barcellona	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	ACR Messina - Vigor Lamezia	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Ragusa - ACR Messina	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	ACR Messina - Savoia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TWWTL

Athletic Palermo - ACR Messina: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide