Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 9

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio da Tapadinha (Lisbon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Atlético CP		1 Dezembro

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.4	3.6
	1.92	3.57	4
	1.88	3.48	4	Watch
	1.9	3.58	3.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.72)	3.51 ↑ (3.37)	3.85 ↓ (4.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético CP
49.3%

Draw
26.5%

1 Dezembro
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

27.3%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.6%

26.8%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético CP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

1 Dezembro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting 1 Dezembro's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético CP than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético CP, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for 1 Dezembro than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for 1 Dezembro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Atlético CP - 1 Dezembro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
81. Bolivar J. (G) 31. Paulinho (C) 19. Okoli F. 3. Gonzalez F. 21. Garcia O. 60. Marques R. 8. Sousa C. 96. Herrera J. 7. Barandas M. 9. Nicolas Souza 11. Delcio	47. Oliveira J. (G) 77. Andrade Male S. A. 24. Edu 26. Freitas J. (C) 44. Gomes C. 85. Infante A. 22. Dias G. 8. Vito 81. Ferreira D. 17. Sapara A. 20. Harramiz S.
Substitutes
79. Arezes D. 5. Durand V. 1. Ferreira F. (G) 4. Henriques D. 25. Hernandez S. 38. Santana C. 17. Silva D. 49. Suker H.	88. Abreu M. 13. Bernardo J. 1. Duarte F. (G) 9. Ferreira C. 7. Ferreira D. 27. Fuhrer P. 23. Menezes L. 2. Ramos P. 42. Tavares L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Nicolas Souza 🟨,
27', Garcia O. 🟨,
29', Freitas J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Freitas J. ↓, Ramos P. ↑,
61', 0 - 1, Tavares L. ⚽,
63', Garcia O. ↓, Suker H. ↑,
63', Nicolas Souza ↓, Santana C. ↑,
72', Ferreira D. ↓, Menezes L. ↑,
74', Sousa C. ↓, Hernandez S. ↑,
82', Paulinho ↓, Henriques D. ↑,
82', Delcio ↓, Arezes D. ↑,
86', 🟨,
87', Dias G. ↓, Fuhrer P. ↑,
90+2', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético CP won 4.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Atlético CP is seen as the favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Atlético CP won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 18:11. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético CP won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético CP
Portuguese Liga 3
18.04.26	Atlético CP - Caldas	2:0 ✺
12.04.26	Covilhã - Atlético CP	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Atlético CP - Amora	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Caldas - Atlético CP	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Amora - Atlético CP	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WLLWW
- SU 1 Dezembro
Portuguese Liga 3
19.04.26	1 Dezembro - Amora	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Lusitano GC - 1 Dezembro	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	1 Dezembro - Covilhã	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Amora - 1 Dezembro	0:4 ✺
07.03.26	Covilhã - 1 Dezembro	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
22.02.26	1 Dezembro - Atlético CP	1:5
20.12.25	1 Dezembro - Atlético CP	0:1
12.10.25	Atlético CP - 1 Dezembro	4:0
17.05.25	Atlético CP - 1 Dezembro	1:2
30.03.25	1 Dezembro - Atlético CP	0:1
03.11.24	1 Dezembro - Atlético CP	2:1
04.08.24	Atlético CP - 1 Dezembro	0:1

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