Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 7

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Campo Estrela (Evora)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Lusitano GC		1 Dezembro

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.3	4.75
	1.7	3.96	5.88
	1.73	3.66	4.6	Watch
	1.72	3.51	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.85)	3.61 ↑ (3.42)	5.03 ↑ (3.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitano GC
55.3%

Draw
26%

1 Dezembro
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

26.7%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

26.2%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitano GC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lusitano GC's performance.

1 Dezembro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and 1 Dezembro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitano GC than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for 1 Dezembro than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Lusitano GC - 1 Dezembro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Martins D. (G) 53. Carvalho E. 25. Pinto J. 4. Santana C. 37. Monteiro R. 10. Aguas M. 14. Cande B. 8. Baptista T. 30. Davou S. 9. Lopes D. 77. Tipote L.	47. Oliveira J. (G) 26. Freitas J. 44. Gomes C. 24. Edu 88. Abreu M. 77. Andrade Male S. A. 8. Vito 11. Isabelinha 7. Ferreira D. 20. Harramiz S. 17. Sapara A.
Substitutes
11. Almara F. 6. Andrade M. . Grilo T. (G) 29. Isnaba G. 15. Lima Z. . Mussole J. 5. Palancha T. 23. Pereira F. 21. Soares M.	13. Bernardo J. 22. Dias G. 1. Duarte F. (G) 9. Ferreira C. 27. Fuhrer P. 85. Infante A. 23. Menezes L. 2. Ramos P. 42. Tavares L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Aguas M. ⚽, Pinto J. (A),
23', 2 - 0, Lopes D. ⚽, Carvalho E. (A),
31', Vito 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Isabelinha ↓, Infante A. ↑,
46', Freitas J. ↓, Fuhrer P. ↑,
60', Tipote L. ↓, Almara F. ↑,
65', Edu ↓, Ferreira C. ↑,
69', Carvalho E. 🟨,
74', Oliveira J. 🟨,
76', Lopes D. ↓, Andrade M. ↑,
78', Carvalho E. ↓, Soares M. ↑,
83', Harramiz S. ↓, Bernardo J. ↑,
84', Sapara A. ↓, Tavares L. ↑,
86', Aguas M. ↓, Pereira F. ↑,
86', Baptista T. ↓, Isnaba G. ↑,
90+2', Santana C. 🟨,
90+2', 2 - 1, Tavares L. ⚽, Andrade Male S. A. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lusitano GC won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Lusitano GC is the team to beat.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Lusitano GC won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Lusitano GC won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

1 Dezembro - the odds 3.82 are the expected chance of winning is 23.94%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitano GC
Portuguese Liga 3
22.03.26	Caldas - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Covilhã - Lusitano GC	1:3 ✺
07.03.26	Lusitano GC - Caldas	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Lusitano GC - Amora	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TWLTW
- SU 1 Dezembro
Portuguese Liga 3
21.03.26	1 Dezembro - Covilhã	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Amora - 1 Dezembro	0:4 ✺
07.03.26	Covilhã - 1 Dezembro	0:2 ✺
28.02.26	1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	1 Dezembro - Atlético CP	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
28.02.26	1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC	1:1
24.01.26	1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC	1:1
01.11.25	Lusitano GC - 1 Dezembro	2:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
04.06.23	Lusitano GC - 1 Dezembro	1:1
14.05.23	1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC	3:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
08.03.20	1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC	0:1

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