Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 4

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio José Santos Pinto (Covilhã)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Covilhã		1 Dezembro

	1	X	2
	2.38	2.82	2.98
	2.35	3.01	3.43
	2.42	3.03	3.06	Watch
	2.41	2.77	3.07
	2.65	2.8	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (2.64)	2.89 ↑ (2.84)	3.07 ↑ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Covilhã
37.8%

Draw
32%

1 Dezembro
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

32.4%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

31.3%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Covilhã has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

1 Dezembro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for 1 Dezembro than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Covilhã - 1 Dezembro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Pinto Galil L. G. (G) 77. Silva M. 26. Balsa C. 33. Calegari A. (C) 22. Gomes Silva E. 20. Ferreira R. 6. Barbosa A. 96. Jailson 19. Cruz F. 79. Liberal A. 99. Niang C.	47. Oliveira J. (G) 33. Mane L. 44. Gomes C. (C) 24. Edu 88. Abreu M. 14. Vito 77. Andrade Male S. A. 85. Infante A. 11. Isabelinha 20. Harramiz S. 17. Sapara A.
Substitutes
3. Costa Branco Novais Oliveira T. 90. Diancoumba S. 55. Garcia F. 74. Igreja T. (G) 30. Matos S. 10. Mica 27. Pimenta T. 13. Ribeiro P. 11. Silva J.	96. Arroyo J. 22. Dias G. 1. Duarte F. (G) 9. Ferreira C. 81. Ferreira D. 7. Ferreira D. 26. Freitas J. 23. Menezes L. 2. Ramos P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Jailson 🟨,
37', Isabelinha 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
50', 0 - 1, Andrade Male S. A. ⚽,
59', Jailson ↓, Mica ↑,
64', Gomes C. 🟨,
64', 0 - 2, Sapara A. ⚽,
75', Barbosa A. ↓, Ribeiro P. ↑,
78', Sapara A. ↓, Ferreira D. ↑,
86', Infante A. ↓, Menezes L. ↑,
86', Liberal A. ↓, Matos S. ↑,
90+2', Andrade Male S. A. ↓, Ferreira D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Covilhã won 0.

Covilhã is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

1 Dezembro's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Covilhã won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Covilhã won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 3
28.02.26	Atlético CP - Covilhã	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Covilhã - Caldas	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Amora - Covilhã	0:3 ✺
24.01.26	Amora - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Covilhã - Atlético CP	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25 WWWLT
- SU 1 Dezembro
Portuguese Liga 3
28.02.26	1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	1 Dezembro - Atlético CP	1:5 ✺
15.02.26	Caldas - 1 Dezembro	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	1 Dezembro - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Belenenses - 1 Dezembro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
30.11.25	1 Dezembro - Covilhã	1:1
16.08.25	Covilhã - 1 Dezembro	0:1
08.12.24	Covilhã - 1 Dezembro	0:3
24.08.24	1 Dezembro - Covilhã	3:1
10.12.23	Covilhã - 1 Dezembro	0:0
27.08.23	1 Dezembro - Covilhã	0:2

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