Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 3

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio da Tapadinha (Lisbon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Atlético CP		Covilhã

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.6	5.15
	1.64	3.78	5.57
	1.67	3.61	5.19	Watch
	1.7	3.25	4.75
	1.65	3.79	5
	1.67	3.5	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.69)	3.59 ↑ (3.35)	5.08 ↑ (4.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético CP
56.1%

Draw
25.7%

Covilhã
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.9%

27.2%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

26.5%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético CP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Covilhã has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético CP than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Atlético CP - Covilhã Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Dias R. (G) 23. Almeida B. 7. Barandas M. 18. Dias R. 5. Durand V. 3. Gonzalez F. 4. Henriques D. 25. Hernandez S. 96. Herrera J. 9. Nicolas Souza 8. Sousa C.	31. Pinto Galil L. G. (G) 26. Balsa C. 6. Barbosa A. 33. Calegari A. 19. Cruz F. 20. Ferreira R. 22. Gomes Silva E. 96. Jailson 79. Liberal A. 99. Niang C. 77. Silva M. (C)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
42', Barbosa A. ↓, Costa Branco Novais Oliveira T. ↑,
45', 0 - 1, Balsa C. ⚽, Ferreira R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 🟨,
61', 0 - 2, Liberal A. (Penalty Awarded),
63', Herrera J. ↓, Delcio ↑,
64', Niang C. 🟨,
65', Jailson ↓, Ribeiro P. ↑,
67', Silva M. 🟨,
73', 🟨,
74', Durand V. ↓, Silva D. ↑,
74', Sousa C. ↓, Okoli F. ↑,
75', Dias R. ↓, Marques R. ↑,
75', Cruz F. ↓, Matos S. ↑,
77', Niang C. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
83', Pinto Galil L. G. 🟨,
85', Dias R. ↓, Arezes D. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 2, Marques R. (Penalty Awarded),
90+9', Nicolas Souza 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético CP won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Atlético CP is a strong favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Atlético CP won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético CP won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 0.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético CP
Portuguese Liga 3
22.02.26	1 Dezembro - Atlético CP	1:5 ✺
15.02.26	Atlético CP - Lusitano GC	3:0 ✺
24.01.26	Atlético CP - Mafra	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Covilhã - Atlético CP	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	União de Santarém - Atlético CP	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWLTT
- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 3
22.02.26	Covilhã - Caldas	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Amora - Covilhã	0:3 ✺
24.01.26	Amora - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Covilhã - Atlético CP	0:0 ✺
14.01.26	Covilhã - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
17.01.26	Covilhã - Atlético CP	0:0
26.10.25	Atlético CP - Covilhã	0:0
12.01.25	Covilhã - Atlético CP	1:3
29.09.24	Atlético CP - Covilhã	1:0
28.04.24	Atlético CP - Covilhã	1:2
02.03.24	Covilhã - Atlético CP	2:2
01.12.23	Atlético CP - Covilhã	1:1

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