Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 1

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Medideira Stadium (Amora)


	Amora		Covilhã

	1	X	2
	2.02	3	3.5
	2.17	3.15	3.66
	2.1	3.2	3.56	Watch
	2.05	2.9	3.5
	2.06	3.19	3.7	Watch
	2.08	2.9	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↑ (2.05)	3.06 ↑ (2.99)	3.57 ↓ (3.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amora
44.2%

Draw
30.1%

Covilhã
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

30.5%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

25.9%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Covilhã has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amora than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Amora that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Amora - Covilhã Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Azevedo D. (G) 8. Antunes M. 28. Cruz H. 25. Duque T. (C) 17. Furtado E. 13. Lopes M. 7. Lopes M. 4. Marlom Oliveira 9. Oliveira J. 71. Semedo D. 16. Teixeira P.	31. Pinto Galil L. G. (G) 26. Balsa C. 6. Barbosa A. 33. Calegari A. 19. Cruz F. 20. Ferreira R. (C) 22. Gomes Silva E. 96. Jailson 79. Liberal A. 99. Niang C. 77. Silva M.
Substitutes
19. Barros G. . Buby 27. Camara B. 47. Correia H. (G) . Costinha . Gustavo Almeida 23. Marques F. 22. Marques J. 24. Miguel I. (G) 18. Quinaz Pereira M. P. A. 10. Toni	3. Costa Branco Novais Oliveira T. 90. Diancoumba S. 55. Garcia F. 74. Igreja T. (G) 30. Matos S. 97. Ndiaye B. 27. Pimenta T. 13. Ribeiro P. 11. Silva J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
5', Silva M. 🟨,
10', Calegari A. 🟨,
11', 0 - 1, Niang C. ⚽,
17', Marlom Oliveira 🟥,
36', 0 - 2, Jailson ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lopes M. ↓, Marques F. ↑,
59', Lopes M. 🟨,
61', Cruz F. ↓, Costa Branco Novais Oliveira T. ↑,
61', Niang C. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
66', Lopes M. ↓, Toni ↑,
71', Toni 🟨,
73', Teixeira P. ↓, Marques J. ↑,
73', Semedo D. ↓, Buby ↑,
80', Balsa C. ↓, Ribeiro P. ↑,
82', Buby 🟨,
84', 0 - 3, Silva J. ⚽,
87', Gomes Silva E. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
88', Oliveira J. ↓, Costinha ↑,

Preview

Both teams are currently in poor form.

In this match, Amora is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Amora won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Amora won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Amora FC
Portuguese Liga 3
24.01.26	Amora - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
18.01.26	Académica Coimbra - Amora	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Amora - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
03.01.26	Belenenses - Amora	3:1 ✺
20.12.25	Amora - Mafra	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLTLL
- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 3
24.01.26	Amora - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Covilhã - Atlético CP	0:0 ✺
14.01.26	Covilhã - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Lusitano GC - Covilhã	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	Covilhã - Belenenses	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
24.01.26	Amora - Covilhã	2:0
02.11.25	Covilhã - Amora	0:2
17.01.24	Covilhã - Amora	2:0
17.09.23	Amora - Covilhã	1:1

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