Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 2

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Santos Pinto (Covilhã)


	Covilhã		Caldas

	1	X	2
	2.78	3	2.38
	2.85	3.05	2.59
	2.83	3.12	2.53	Watch
	2.75	3	2.38
	2.74	3.35	2.46
	2.8	2.83	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↓ (2.96)	3.06 ↑ (2.91)	2.47 ↑ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Covilhã
32.9%

Draw
30%

Caldas
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

31.3%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

30.3%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Covilhã has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caldas than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Covilhã - Caldas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Pinto Galil L. G. (G) 77. Silva M. 26. Balsa C. 33. Calegari A. 22. Gomes Silva E. 20. Ferreira R. 6. Barbosa A. 96. Jailson 19. Cruz F. 79. Liberal A. 99. Niang C.	1. Soares W. (G) 60. Silva R. 14. Maneta D. 66. Carreira R. 30. Monteiro E. 4. Pipo 8. Clemente D. 94. Oliveira F. 79. Gata J. 33. Tarzan 17. Goncas
Substitutes
3. Costa Branco Novais Oliveira T. 90. Diancoumba S. 55. Garcia F. 74. Igreja T. (G) 30. Matos S. 97. N'Diaye M. 27. Pimenta T. 13. Ribeiro P. 11. Silva J.	12. Almeida D. (G) 23. Catarino T. 25. Farinha L. 21. Fernandes D. 19. Isaac Djei B. A. 10. Januario 77. Lopes D. 20. Lourenco G. 6. Palmerio M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Liberal A. ⚽, Cruz F. (A),
41', Goncas 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Pipo ↓, Isaac Djei B. A. ↑,
56', 🟨,
63', 🟨,
69', Jailson ↓, Matos S. ↑,
69', Liberal A. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
80', Cruz F. ↓, Costa Branco Novais Oliveira T. ↑,
85', Niang C. ↓, Diancoumba S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Covilhã won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Covilhã won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:15. (average 1.5:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Covilhã won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 2:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 3
15.02.26	Amora - Covilhã	0:3 ✺
24.01.26	Amora - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Covilhã - Atlético CP	0:0 ✺
14.01.26	Covilhã - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Lusitano GC - Covilhã	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WLTTL
- SC Caldas
Portuguese Liga 3
15.02.26	Caldas - 1 Dezembro	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Caldas - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Lusitano GC - Caldas	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Caldas - Belenenses	1:2 ✺
03.01.26	Mafra - Caldas	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
09.11.25	Covilhã - Caldas	2:1
09.08.25	Caldas - Covilhã	2:1
Club Friendly
25.07.25	Caldas - Covilhã	1:1
Portuguese Liga 3
04.05.25	Covilhã - Caldas	1:1
15.02.25	Caldas - Covilhã	0:1
30.11.24	Caldas - Covilhã	1:2
18.08.24	Covilhã - Caldas	1:0

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