Match Info

Baiano - Round 8

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Carneiro (Alagoinhas)


	Atlético de Alagoinhas		Porto SC

	1	X	2
	2.92	3.2	2.28
	2.71	3.2	2.25
	2.97	3.36	2.18
	3.3	2.9	2.05
	2.8	3.24	2.3
	3.25	3.2	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.99 ↑ (2.5)	3.18 ↓ (3.2)	2.22 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético de Alagoinhas
30.4%

Draw
28.6%

Porto SC
41%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

29.2%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

29.6%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético de Alagoinhas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético de Alagoinhas's form might have worsened.

Porto SC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Porto SC's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético de Alagoinhas than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético de Alagoinhas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto SC than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Porto SC, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Atlético de Alagoinhas - Porto SC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel Bartelli (G) 4. Dede 7. Everson Ribeiro 11. Felipe E. 6. Hernandes 9. Michael 10. Miller 3. Pantera D. 2. Van 8. Wanderson Papaterra 5. Willian Kaefer	1. Matheus Cabral (G) 3. Anderson Bandeira 7. Bruno Ferreira 19. Cesinha 4. Everton Dias 21. Gabriel Jordan 2. Gabriel Saulo 11. Italo 10. Luan Rodrigues 8. Pedro Lima 6. Peu

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', 🟨,
13', 🟨,
27', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
73', 🟨,
83', 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation ~ Baiano 2 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Baiano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Atlético Alagoinhas is Relegated to Baiano 2

Atlético Alagoinhas is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Porto's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Porto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Porto might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Atlético Alagoinhas won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético de Alagoinhas
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
10.02.26	Jacuipense - Atlético de Alagoinhas	2:1 ✺
03.02.26	Atlético de Alagoinhas - Juazeirense	1:2 ✺
27.01.26	Galícia - Atlético de Alagoinhas	1:0 ✺
22.01.26	Jequié - Atlético de Alagoinhas	4:1 ✺
18.01.26	Atlético de Alagoinhas - Bahia de Feira	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLT
- Porto SC Porto Seguro
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
07.02.26	Porto SC - Galícia	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Bahia - Porto SC	3:1 ✺
28.01.26	Porto SC - Barcelona de Ilhéus	1:1 ✺
22.01.26	Bahia de Feira - Porto SC	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Porto SC - Vitória Salvador	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
21.01.25	Porto SC - Atlético de Alagoinhas	1:1

Atlético de Alagoinhas - Porto SC: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide