Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 10 - Round 28

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday


	Atlético Onubense		Ciudad de Lucena

	1	X	2
	4.95	3.3	1.65
	5.1	3.41	1.68
	14.81	6.52	1.16	Watch
	5	3.1	1.67
	4.93	3.53	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.96 ↑ (4.92)	3.97 ↑ (3.37)	1.57 ↓ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Onubense
13.9%

Draw
24.4%

Ciudad de Lucena
61.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.5%

27%

54.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.2%

26.6%

55.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Onubense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Ciudad de Lucena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ciudad de Lucena's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Onubense than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ciudad de Lucena than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ciudad de Lucena, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Atlético Onubense - Ciudad de Lucena Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
19', 1 - 0, Almeida J. ⚽,
43', 1 - 1, Molina M. ⚽,
45', 1 - 2, Martin J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
83', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

In recent matches, Onubense has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ciudad de Lucena is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Ciudad de Lucena is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Onubense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Onubense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Atl. Onubense	5	1	1	3	6:10	-4	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Onubense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
22.03.26	Bollullos - Atlético Onubense	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Atlético Onubense - Sevilla C	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Linense - Atlético Onubense	1:2 ✺
01.03.26	Atlético Onubense - Tomares	0:0 ✺
22.02.26	Atlético Onubense - Pozoblanco	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 LWWTL
- CD Ciudad de Lucena
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
22.03.26	Ciudad de Lucena - Pozoblanco	3:2 ✺
15.03.26	San Roque de Lepe - Ciudad de Lucena	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Ciudad de Lucena - Castilleja	5:0 ✺
01.03.26	Coria CF - Ciudad de Lucena	0:1 ✺
25.02.26	Ciudad de Lucena - Chiclana	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
16.11.25	Ciudad de Lucena - Atlético Onubense	2:0
23.02.25	Atlético Onubense - Ciudad de Lucena	1:0
13.10.24	Ciudad de Lucena - Atlético Onubense	1:0
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
21.01.18	Atlético Onubense - Ciudad de Lucena	2:3
10.09.17	Ciudad de Lucena - Atlético Onubense	3:2

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