Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 8 - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday


	Atlético Palencia		Palencia CA

	1	X	2
	2.82	2.62	2.68
	3.08	2.36	2.9
	2.75	2.75	2.6
	2.92	2.52	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (2.45)	2.56 ↓ (2.82)	2.72 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Palencia
31.3%

Draw
35.4%

Palencia CA
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

31.9%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

32.5%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Palencia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Palencia's form might have worsened.

Palencia CA has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Palencia than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Palencia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palencia CA than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Atlético Palencia - Palencia CA Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Canario ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', 2 - 0, Mongil V. ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Palencia won 1.

In recent matches, Atlético Palencia has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Palencia CA is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Palencia CA may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Atlético Palencia won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Palencia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Palencia CA	5	3	1	1	6:3	3	10
10	Palencia CF	5	2	1	2	7:6	1	7

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Palencia - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 36.77%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Palencia
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 8
10.05.26	Atlético Palencia - Bembibre	4:1 ✺
02.05.26	Santa Marta Tormes - Atlético Palencia	2:1 ✺
25.04.26	Atlético Palencia - La Virgen del Camino	3:2 ✺
18.04.26	Atlético Mansillés - Atlético Palencia	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Atlético Palencia - Atlético Tordesillas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLWLL
- Palencia CA
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 8
18.04.26	Palencia CA - Leonesa B	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Mojados - Palencia CA	1:2 ✺
04.04.26	Palencia CA - Almazán	4:2 ✺
28.03.26	Atlético Palencia - Palencia CA	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	Palencia CA - Becerril	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 8
28.03.26	Atlético Palencia - Palencia CA	0:1
16.11.25	Palencia CA - Atlético Palencia	1:2
02.03.25	Palencia CA - Atlético Palencia	1:1
19.10.24	Atlético Palencia - Palencia CA	2:2
05.05.24	Atlético Palencia - Palencia CA	0:2
13.01.24	Palencia CA - Atlético Palencia	0:2

Atlético Palencia - Palencia CA: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide