Match Info

Catarinense 2 - Round 13

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday


	Atlético Tubarão		Nação

	1	X	2
	1.46	3.80	6.00
	1.48	3.65	5.30
	1.45	3.81	6.21
	1.48	3.82	6.52	Watch
	1.41	3.85	6.35
	1.43	3.78	7.27
	1.67	3.15	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.71)	3.69 ↑ (3.2)	5.95 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Tubarão
60.6%

Draw
24.3%

Nação
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

27.4%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.2%

25.4%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Tubarão has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Tubarão's performance.

Nação has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nação might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Tubarão than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Tubarão that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nação than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Atlético Tubarão - Nação Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
33', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 5 and 8).

Atlético Tubarão is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nação has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Atlético Tubarão is the clear favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Atlético Tubarão won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Atlético Tubarão won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:4.

Standings

2026

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Tubarao	18	6	5	7	23:21	2	23
7	Nacao	18	5	6	7	19:26	-7	21

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Tubarão
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense 2
01.07.26	Jaraguá do Sul - Atlético Tubarão	0:3 ✺
21.06.26	Grêmio Juventus - Atlético Tubarão	0:2 ✺
17.06.26	Atlético Tubarão - Blumenau	2:3 ✺
07.06.26	Guarani de Palhoça - Atlético Tubarão	2:2 ✺
31.05.26	Atlético Tubarão - Fluminense-SC	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLTW
- Nação Esportes Canoinhas
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense 2
01.07.26	Nação - Metropolitano	0:0 ✺
21.06.26	Guarani de Palhoça - Nação	0:0 ✺
17.06.26	Nação - Grêmio Juventus	1:0 ✺
07.06.26	Hercílio Luz - Nação	2:1 ✺
03.06.26	Nação - Blumenau	0:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense 2
12.05.26	Nação - Atlético Tubarão	0:0
27.07.25	Nação - Atlético Tubarão	1:2
16.07.22	Atlético Tubarão - Nação	0:4

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