Match Info

Catarinense 2 - Round 11

Date: 21 June 2026, Sunday


	Guarani de Palhoça		Nação

	1	X	2
	2.00	3.10	3.30
	2.25	2.90	2.85
	2.04	3.05	3.4
	2.09	3.06	3.49	Watch
	2	3.2	3.4
	2.03	3.13	3.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.25)	3.07 ↑ (2.9)	3.32 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guarani de Palhoça
43.5%

Draw
29.3%

Nação
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

30.2%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

29%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarani de Palhoça has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Nação has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guarani de Palhoça than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nação than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Guarani de Palhoça - Nação Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 and 6).

In recent matches, Guarani de Palhoça has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Nação is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Guarani de Palhoça will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Guarani de Palhoça won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Guarani de Palhoça won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

2026

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Guarani de Palhoca	18	6	5	7	24:24	0	23
7	Nacao	18	5	6	7	19:26	-7	21

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guarani de Palhoça
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense 2
14.06.26	Metropolitano - Guarani de Palhoça	3:1 ✺
07.06.26	Guarani de Palhoça - Atlético Tubarão	2:2 ✺
03.06.26	Jaraguá do Sul - Guarani de Palhoça	1:3 ✺
27.05.26	Blumenau - Guarani de Palhoça	2:0 ✺
16.05.26	Guarani de Palhoça - Grêmio Juventus	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LTWLW
- Nação Esportes Canoinhas
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense 2
17.06.26	Nação - Grêmio Juventus	1:0 ✺
07.06.26	Hercílio Luz - Nação	2:1 ✺
03.06.26	Nação - Blumenau	0:6 ✺
27.05.26	Caravaggio - Nação	4:1 ✺
16.05.26	Fluminense-SC - Nação	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense 2
19.08.23	Nação - Guarani de Palhoça	1:1
13.08.23	Guarani de Palhoça - Nação	0:0
18.06.23	Nação - Guarani de Palhoça	1:1

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