Match Info

Copa Santa Catarina - Round 5

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday


	Hercílio Luz		Nação

	1	X	2
	1.23	5.25	10.00
	1.24	4.98	9.02
	1.28	4.94	9.4
	1.22	4.90	8.90
	1.22	5.65	11.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.31)	5.14 ↓ (5.2)	9.82 ↑ (7.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hercílio Luz
73.2%

Draw
17.6%

Nação
9.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.1%

17.6%

12.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hercílio Luz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Nação has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Hercílio Luz - Nação Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, ⚽,
39', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
74', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 4th in the Promotion ~ Copa Santa Catarina PlayoffsSemi~finals) and 8th).

Hercílio Luz could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Hercílio Luz holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Hercílio Luz has recorded 4 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 8:4 (averaging 1.6:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Hercílio Luz against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 5:3 goals (averaging 1.7:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Hercilio Luz	4	3	0	1	11:8	3	9
9	Nacao	5	0	2	3	6:12	-6	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hercílio Luz FC
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
19.09.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Hercílio Luz	4:2 ✺
12.09.26	Joinville - Hercílio Luz	1:3 ✺
30.08.26	Hercílio Luz - Metropolitano	4:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense 2
25.07.26	Nação - Hercílio Luz	1:2 ✺
22.07.26	Hercílio Luz - Caravaggio	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWWWT
- Nação Esportes Canoinhas
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
23.09.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Nação	3:3 ✺
12.09.26	Figueirense - Nação	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Nação - Santa Catarina	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense 2
25.07.26	Nação - Hercílio Luz	1:2 ✺
22.07.26	Blumenau - Nação	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 33.3 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense 2
25.07.26	Nação - Hercílio Luz	1:2
07.06.26	Hercílio Luz - Nação	2:1
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
28.09.24	Hercílio Luz - Nação	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
15.02.24	Hercílio Luz - Nação	2:2
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
17.09.23	Nação - Hercílio Luz	0:1

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