Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 6

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio das Seixas (Malveira)


	Atlético da Malveira		Serpa

	1	X	2
	2.25	3	3.06
	2.36	3.18	2.87	Watch
	2.26	3.02	3.08
	2.1	3	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.1)	3.05 ↑ (3)	3.09 ↓ (3.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético da Malveira
40.6%

Draw
29.9%

Serpa
29.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

30%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

30.9%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético da Malveira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Serpa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético da Malveira than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Serpa than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Atlético da Malveira - Serpa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, ⚽,
45+3', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', 2 - 1, ⚽,
90+4', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group).

Malveira has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Serpa is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Malveira is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético da Malveira
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
28.09.25	Alcochetense - Atlético da Malveira	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	União Lamas - Atlético da Malveira	2:1 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
14.09.25	Atlético da Malveira - Oriental	2:0 ✺
24.08.25	Alverca B - Atlético da Malveira	0:2 ✺
16.08.25	Atlético da Malveira - Elvas	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WLWWL
- FC Serpa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
28.09.25	Serpa - Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Lusitano GC - Serpa	1:0 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
14.09.25	Moncarapachense - Serpa	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
31.08.25	Serpa - Portel	3:0 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
24.08.25	Serpa - Comércio e Indústria	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLTWW

Atlético da Malveira - Serpa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide