Match Info

Taça de Portugal - 1/64-finals

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday


	Lusitano GC		Serpa

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.1	4.75
	1.47	4.37	5
	1.09	1.00	1.00	Watch
	1.49	4.33	5.53
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.64)	3.45 ↓ (3.94)	4.07 ↓ (4.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitano GC
57.4%

Draw
23.1%

Serpa
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

23%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

24.2%

20.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitano GC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Serpa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitano GC than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Serpa than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Lusitano GC - Serpa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', 1 - 0, Almara F. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lusitano GC won 1.

Lusitano GC has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Serpa is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Serpa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Lusitano GC is a strong favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Lusitano GC won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Lusitano GC won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitano GC
Portuguese Liga 3
13.09.25	Lusitano GC - Atlético CP	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Belenenses - Lusitano GC	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Lusitano GC - Mafra	4:1 ✺
09.08.25	União de Santarém - Lusitano GC	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Elvas - Lusitano GC	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LLWLW
- FC Serpa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
14.09.25	Moncarapachense - Serpa	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
31.08.25	Serpa - Portel	3:0 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
24.08.25	Serpa - Comércio e Indústria	3:0 ✺
17.08.25	Serpa - Lagoa	2:1 ✺
09.08.25	Alcochetense - Serpa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
02.02.25	Lusitano GC - Serpa	3:2
15.09.24	Serpa - Lusitano GC	0:0
09.03.24	Serpa - Lusitano GC	0:0
12.11.23	Lusitano GC - Serpa	0:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
19.03.23	Serpa - Lusitano GC	2:2
04.12.22	Lusitano GC - Serpa	2:1

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