Match Info

I Lyga - Round 11

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Lithuania	LNK


	Atmosfera Mažeikiai		Garliava

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.3	2.75
	2.25	3.3	2.72	Watch
	2.25	3.4	2.75
	2.3	3.28	2.84	Watch
	2.25	3.1	2.8
	2.25	3.57	2.81
	2.17	3.4	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.12)	3.34 ↓ (3.53)	2.78 ↓ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atmosfera Mažeikiai
40.4%

Draw
27.1%

Garliava
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

25.8%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

26.2%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atmosfera Mažeikiai has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Garliava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atmosfera Mažeikiai than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Garliava than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Garliava Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Garliava will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', 0 - 1, ⚽,
68', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 and 4).

Atmosfera is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Garliava has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Atmosfera may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Atmosfera won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Atmosfera won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 2.5:2.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Atmosfera	24	8	6	10	37:33	4	30
10	Garliava	25	8	4	13	31:28	3	28

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atmosfera Mažeikiai
Lithuanian Cup
20.05.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Panevėžys	0:3 ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
16.05.26	BFA Vilnius - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	0:5 ✺
09.05.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Babrungas Plungė	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Tauras Tauragė - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Neptūnas	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWTLL
- FK Garliava
Lithuanian Cup
19.05.26	BFA Vilnius - Garliava	2:1 ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
15.05.26	Garliava - Kauno Žalgiris 2	3:0 ✺
09.05.26	BFA Vilnius - Garliava	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Garliava - Ekranas	3:1 ✺
24.04.26	Babrungas Plungė - Garliava	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
26.10.24	Garliava - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	0:1
08.06.24	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Garliava	3:2
07.10.22	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Garliava	2:3
03.06.22	Garliava - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	1:1

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