Match Info

I Lyga - Round 10

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Lithuania	LNK


	BFA Vilnius		Atmosfera Mažeikiai

	1	X	2
	2.72	3.25	2.28	Watch
	2.65	3.24	2.28
	2.77	3.31	2.33	Watch
	2.75	3	2.3
	2.68	3.3	2.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.6)	3.22 ↓ (3.25)	2.3 ↓ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

BFA Vilnius
33.1%

Draw
27.9%

Atmosfera Mažeikiai
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

28%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

27.1%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

BFA Vilnius has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Atmosfera Mažeikiai has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for BFA Vilnius than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atmosfera Mažeikiai than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

BFA Vilnius - Atmosfera Mažeikiai Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Funami Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
51', 0 - 2, Funami Y. ⚽,
55', 0 - 3, Funami Y. ⚽,
67', 0 - 4, Gritkus E. ⚽,
70', 0 - 5, Horikoshi T. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, BFA won 1.

Recent performances by BFA have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atmosfera has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Atmosfera may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Atmosfera has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, BFA won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:21. (average 1.6:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, BFA won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 0.8:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	BFA Vilnius	25	13	4	8	39:35	4	43
9	Atmosfera	24	8	6	10	37:33	4	30

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BFA Vilnius
Lithuanian Division 2
09.05.26	BFA Vilnius - Garliava	1:2 ✺
01.05.26	Babrungas Plungė - BFA Vilnius	4:0 ✺
25.04.26	BFA Vilnius - Tauras Tauragė	3:1 ✺
17.04.26	Neptūnas - BFA Vilnius	1:3 ✺
04.04.26	BFA Vilnius - Dainava Alytus	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.1 LLWWT
- Atmosfera Mažeikiai
Lithuanian Division 2
09.05.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Babrungas Plungė	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Tauras Tauragė - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Neptūnas	1:3 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
21.04.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Žalgiris	2:1 ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
18.04.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Dainava Alytus	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.9 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
09.11.25	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - BFA Vilnius	2:2
28.06.25	BFA Vilnius - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	1:0
13.10.24	BFA Vilnius - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	0:2
25.05.24	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - BFA Vilnius	1:1
Lithuanian Cup
07.05.24	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - BFA Vilnius	6:0
Lithuanian Division 2
29.10.22	BFA Vilnius - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	1:2
23.06.22	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - BFA Vilnius	0:1

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