Match Info

I Lyga - Round 12

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Lithuania	LNK


	Atmosfera Mažeikiai		Žalgiris Vilnius 2

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.65	3.75	4.05	Watch
	1.54	3.89	4.54
	1.59	3.94	4.80	Watch
	1.5	4	4.8
	1.69	4	3.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.62)	3.92 ↓ (3.93)	4.41 ↑ (4.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atmosfera Mažeikiai
56.5%

Draw
23%

Žalgiris Vilnius 2
20.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.1%

23.2%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

20.3%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atmosfera Mažeikiai has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Žalgiris Vilnius 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atmosfera Mažeikiai than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atmosfera Mažeikiai that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Žalgiris Vilnius 2 than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Žalgiris Vilnius 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Seki K. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atmosfera won 1.

Atmosfera has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Žalgiris 2's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Atmosfera may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Atmosfera is seen as the favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Atmosfera won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:20. (average 2:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Atmosfera won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:6. (average 2.8:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Zalgiris 2	25	13	4	8	38:32	6	43
9	Atmosfera	24	8	6	10	37:33	4	30

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atmosfera Mažeikiai
Lithuanian Division 2
23.05.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Garliava	1:1 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
20.05.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Panevėžys	0:3 ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
16.05.26	BFA Vilnius - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	0:5 ✺
09.05.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Babrungas Plungė	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Tauras Tauragė - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TLWTL
- Žalgiris Vilnius 2
Lithuanian Division 2
22.05.26	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - BFA Vilnius	3:4 ✺
15.05.26	Babrungas Plungė - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	3:0 ✺
08.05.26	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Tauras Tauragė	2:2 ✺
02.05.26	Neptūnas - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	2:1 ✺
24.04.26	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Dainava Alytus	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
23.08.25	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	5:0
26.04.25	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	2:1
27.08.22	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	4:4
15.04.22	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	1:1
13.08.21	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	3:3
17.04.21	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	5:0
16.10.20	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	2:2

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