Match Info

I Lyga - Round 8

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Lithuania	LNK


	Neptūnas		Žalgiris Vilnius 2

	1	X	2
	1.52	3.95	4.95	Watch
	1.48	4	5.01
	1.51	4.09	5.35	Watch
	1.5	3.75	5
	1.51	4.2	5.31
	1.49	4	5.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.49)	4 ↓ (4.05)	5.15 (5.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Neptūnas
60%

Draw
22.5%

Žalgiris Vilnius 2
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.3%

22.2%

17.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

20.9%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Neptūnas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

The chances for Žalgiris Vilnius 2 have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neptūnas than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Žalgiris Vilnius 2 than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Neptūnas - Žalgiris Vilnius 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
44', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
69', 1 - 1, ⚽,
73', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Neptūnas won 3.

Neptūnas has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Žalgiris 2 is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Neptūnas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Neptūnas is a strong favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Neptūnas won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:9. (average 2.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Neptūnas won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.8:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Zalgiris 2	26	14	4	8	40:33	7	46
5	Neptunas	25	14	2	9	33:30	3	44

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Neptūnas Klaipėda
Lithuanian Division 2
25.04.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Neptūnas	1:3 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
22.04.26	Neptūnas - Džiugas Telšiai	0:2 ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
17.04.26	Neptūnas - BFA Vilnius	1:3 ✺
04.04.26	Babrungas Plungė - Neptūnas	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Neptūnas - Tauras Tauragė	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLLLW
- Žalgiris Vilnius 2
Lithuanian Division 2
24.04.26	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Dainava Alytus	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Transinvest 2 - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	2:2 ✺
12.04.26	Kauno Žalgiris 2 - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	0:1 ✺
03.04.26	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - FA Šiauliai B	4:0 ✺
17.03.26	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Ekranas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
03.08.25	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Neptūnas	3:3
29.03.25	Neptūnas - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	2:0
16.09.23	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Neptūnas	1:4
21.04.23	Neptūnas - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	2:0
10.07.22	Neptūnas - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	2:2
19.03.22	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Neptūnas	0:1
24.10.21	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Neptūnas	1:3

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