Match Info

BRAZIL: CARIOCA - TACA GUANABARA - ROUND 11

Date: 2 March 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Elcyr Resende de Mendonca (Rio de Janeiro)


	Audax Rio		Sampaio Corrêa FE

	1	X	2
	4	3.4	1.88
	4	3.4	1.9
	3.95	3.2	1.9
	4.3	3.25	1.88
	4.11	3.34	1.87
	3.8	3.35	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.03 ↑ (3.1)	3.32 ↑ (3)	1.88 ↓ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Audax Rio
23%

Draw
27.8%

Sampaio Corrêa FE
49.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.8%

30.8%

39.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.8%

31.9%

40.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Audax Rio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Audax Rio's form might have worsened.

Sampaio Corrêa FE has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sampaio Corrêa FE's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Audax Rio than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Audax Rio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sampaio Corrêa FE than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sampaio Corrêa FE, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Audax Rio - Sampaio Corrêa FE Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Leandro (C) 11. Andrade Perez da Silva R. 6. Arlen 10. Bruno Paulo 17. Clisman 2. Diego Miticov 13. Jackson Caucaia 4. Marcos Arthur 5. Ramon 15. Romarinho 8. Vinicius Matheus	1. Leandro Matheus (G) 4. Eduardo Thuram 9. Elias 10. Gabriel Agu 6. Guilherme 3. Indio 2. Lucas Carvalho 8. Marcelo 7. Max 11. Rafael Pernao 5. Rodrigo Dantas
Substitutes
16. Alves I. 1. Anderson Max (G) 9. Fabio Henrique 14. Fellipe Resende 3. Igor Silva 31. Lucas Gomes (G) 7. Tavinho	16. Betao 20. Cruz Manhaes O. 21. Davi Santos 12. Diogo (G) 18. Eduardo Rosado 13. Elenilson 22. Gustavo Tonoli 19. Hugo Cabral 31. Igor 14. Josiel 15. Paulo Vitor 17. Yago Rocha
Coaches
Quadros L.	Sampaio A.

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation ~ Carioca 2 and 11).

Audax Rio is Relegated to Carioca 2

Audax Rio has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Sampaio Corrêa FE is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Audax Rio could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Sampaio Corrêa FE will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Audax Rio won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Audax Rio won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Audax Rio
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
24.02.24	Audax Rio - Botafogo RJ	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.02.24	Audax Rio - Portuguesa RJ	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
18.02.24	Audax Rio - Nova Iguaçu	1:2 ✺
15.02.24	Portuguesa RJ - Audax Rio	1:0 ✺
08.02.24	Vasco da Gama - Audax Rio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTLLL
- Sampaio Corrêa FE
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
25.02.24	Boavista - Sampaio Corrêa FE	3:2 ✺
20.02.24	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Bangu	2:0 ✺
14.02.24	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Madureira	2:1 ✺
08.02.24	Fluminense - Sampaio Corrêa FE	1:0 ✺
04.02.24	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Volta Redonda	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca 2
05.06.21	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Audax Rio	0:0
11.11.20	Audax Rio - Sampaio Corrêa FE	0:2

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