Match Info

Date: 20 November 2021, Saturday


	Aurrerá Ondarroa		Barakaldo

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.1	2.1
	3	3	2.08
	3.05	3.05	2.1
	3.09	3.07	2.1
	3.24	3.1	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↑ (2.64)	3.06 ↑ (2.86)	2.11 ↓ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aurrerá Ondarroa
28.7%

Draw
29%

Barakaldo
42.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

30.4%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.2%

21.4%

52.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aurrerá Ondarroa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Barakaldo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Barakaldo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aurrerá Ondarroa than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aurrerá Ondarroa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Barakaldo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Aurrerá Ondarroa - Barakaldo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 4 (Promotion ~ Play Offs)).

Aurrerá Ondarroa has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Barakaldo is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Barakaldo will have a small advantage in this match.

Barakaldo will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Aurrerá Ondarroa
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
14.11.21	Alavés B - Aurrerá Ondarroa	1:0 ✺
06.11.21	Aurrerá Ondarroa - Beasain	1:4 ✺
30.10.21	Santutxu - Aurrerá Ondarroa	1:0 ✺
16.10.21	Lagun Onak - Aurrerá Ondarroa	3:0 ✺
12.10.21	Aurrerá Ondarroa - Vitoria	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
14.11.21	Barakaldo - San Ignacio	1:0 ✺
07.11.21	Alavés B - Barakaldo	3:2 ✺
31.10.21	Barakaldo - Tolosa	4:2 ✺
12.10.21	Santutxu - Barakaldo	1:2 ✺
09.10.21	Barakaldo - Urduliz	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WLWWW

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