Match Info

PERU: LIGA 2 - ROUND 11

Date: 20 June 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Cumana (Ayacucho)


	Ayacucho		Alfonso Ugarte de Puno

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.75	1.68
	3.5	4	1.7
	4.2	3.5	1.7
	4.2	3.98	1.68
	4	3.75	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.96 ↑ (2.81)	3.8 ↑ (3.4)	1.7 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ayacucho
22.8%

Draw
23.8%

Alfonso Ugarte de Puno
53.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

26.7%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

25.6%

42.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayacucho has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ayacucho's form might have worsened.

Alfonso Ugarte de Puno has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alfonso Ugarte de Puno's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayacucho than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ayacucho, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alfonso Ugarte de Puno than the current prediction. (-10.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alfonso Ugarte de Puno, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	25%	62.5%

Ayacucho - Alfonso Ugarte de Puno Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ayacucho will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Alfonso Ugarte will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alfonso Ugarte: 29% – 96%.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Ccorahua A. (G) 10. Bustamante F. 8. De la Cruz P. 27. Leon B. 7. Molina B. 5. Quintanilla Y. 13. Rodriguez L. 9. Sanchez G. 4. Vega R. 16. Vilchez J. 24. Zevallos J.	23. Castellanos G. (G) 28. Cotrina J. 11. Cuero J. 8. Lara F. 77. Palomino K. 20. Paye E. 10. Quiroz A. 5. Safra J. 32. Suclupe M. 2. Talavera I. 13. Vernal G.

Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 13 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Ayacucho is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Alfonso Ugarte is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Alfonso Ugarte could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Alfonso Ugarte is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayacucho FC
Peruvian Liga 2
12.06.23	Juan Aurich - Ayacucho	1:1 ✺
06.06.23	Carlos Stein - Ayacucho	3:3 ✺
01.06.23	Ayacucho - Universidad San Martín	1:1 ✺
25.05.23	Pirata - Ayacucho	2:0 ✺
20.05.23	Ayacucho - Unión Huaral	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 TTTLL
- Alfonso Ugarte de Puno
Peruvian Liga 2
14.06.23	Alfonso Ugarte de Puno - Carlos Stein	5:1 ✺
08.06.23	Universidad San Martín - Alfonso Ugarte de Puno	2:1 ✺
31.05.23	Alfonso Ugarte de Puno - Pirata	3:0 ✺
24.05.23	Unión Huaral - Alfonso Ugarte de Puno	1:1 ✺
18.05.23	Alfonso Ugarte de Puno - Comerciantes Belén	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLWTW

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