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Current Win Probability
Ayacucho 25.7%
Draw 26%
Unión Comercio 48.3%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
39.3%
29.8%
30.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
39.7%
30.1%
30.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ayacucho has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ayacucho's form might have worsened.
Unión Comercio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Unión Comercio's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayacucho than the current prediction. (+14%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ayacucho, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (-18.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Unión Comercio, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Ayacucho - Unión Comercio Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
28. Melquiades L.
5. Alvarez E.
34. Cruz E.
99. Goluz Pena B.
10. Guerrero G. (C)
24. Javier Navea
20. Palacios M.
25. Paucar E.
31. Pinedo A.
97. Serra P.
17. Vargas D.
Substitutes
12. Amasifuen S. (G)
18. Ayala J.
30. Calero A.
11. Carranza M.
21. Gomez R.
23. Mimbela W.
3. Peralta M.
15. Vargas C.
7. Vargas C.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Goluz Pena B. (Penalty Awarded),
10', 1 - 1, Morales J. ⚽,
16', Albornoz C. H. 🟨,
34', Palacios M. 🟨,
37', Paucar E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Palacios M. ↓, Mimbela W. ↑,
54', Tuesta J. 🟨,
57', Lojas S. 🟨,
61', Infante M. 🟨,
62', Vargas D. ↓, Carranza M. ↑,
62', Cruz E. ↓, Ayala J. ↑,
75', Gonzales E. ↓, Mezarina F. ↑,
75', Morales J. ↓, Diaz M. ↑,
75', Infante M. ↓, Ochante A. ↑,
80', Lojas S. 🟥,
83', Guerrero G. ↓, Vargas C. ↑,
90+2', 🟨,
90+3', 🟨,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ayacucho won 2.
Ayacucho is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Performances by Unión Comercio have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Ayacucho has recorded 7 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:29 (averaging 1.2:1.5 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Ayacucho against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, with 14:10 goals (averaging 1.4:1 per game).
Watch
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Melquiades L. 
Alvarez E. 
Cruz E. 
Goluz Pena B. 
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