The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Comerciantes Belén 53.5%
Draw 27%
Ayacucho 19.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
54%
26.2%
19.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
56.6%
25%
18.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Comerciantes Belén has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)
Ayacucho has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Comerciantes Belén than the current prediction. (+3.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ayacucho than the current prediction. (-0.6%)
Comerciantes Belén - Ayacucho Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Silva L. (G) 28. Acosta A. 30. Arakaki H. 6. Arevalo F. 15. Guerrero Fonseca R. M. 10. Lemos M. 29. Perlaza V. 5. Pinedo D. 19. Ramua A. 3. Rios R. 33. Valdeblanquez J. (C)
1. Acosta M. (G) 25. Albornoz C. H. 2. Aquino H. 6. Banega F. 11. Barboza S. (C) 20. Fanarraga A. 18. Huyhua C. 7. Infante M. 29. Lojas S. 9. Melendez Q. 22. Velasquez J.
Substitutes
7. Bazan J. 8. Flores L. 25. Gonzales Cainamari F. J. 14. Inuma R. 27. Reategui P. 24. Rojas Ihuaraqui P. N. 48. Saravia F. (G) 17. Vela P.
24. Diaz M. 4. Gavilan Y. 15. Gonzales E. 21. Morales J. 23. Orejuela S. (G) 19. Tamariz A. 17. Tuesta J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Barboza S. 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Perlaza V. ⚽,
38', Lemos M. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 1)
48', Lojas S. 🟨,
51', 2 - 0, Arakaki H. ⚽,
53', 3 - 0, Perlaza V. ⚽,
54', Pinedo D. 🟨,
62', 4 - 0, Pinedo D. ⚽,
66', Perlaza V. ↓, Vela P. ↑,
66', Fanarraga A. ↓, Morales J. ↑,
66', Melendez Q. ↓, Tuesta J. ↑,
77', 5 - 0, Vela P. ⚽,
78', Huyhua C. 🟨,
81', Arevalo F. ↓, Gonzales Cainamari F. J. ↑,
81', Acosta A. ↓, Bazan J. ↑,
81', Lemos M. ↓, Rojas Ihuaraqui P. N. ↑,
86', Silva L. ↓, Saravia F. ↑,
88', 5 - 1, Morales J. ⚽,
90+1', 🟨,
90+1', Lojas S. 🟥,
Preview
The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 2 (Promotion Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 2 (Promotion Group: ))
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Comerciantes won 2.
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
Comerciantes may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Comerciantes is the team to beat.
In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Comerciantes won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:6. (average 1.1:0.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Comerciantes won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).
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Silva L. (G) 
Acosta A. 
Lemos M. 
Perlaza V. 
Inuma R. 
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