Match Info

UEFA Nations League - League D - Round 4

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Ganja City Stadium (Gäncä)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Disney+, SporTV 2
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	SportKlub 5
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	UEFA TV
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	New World TV
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	GTV, K-Vision
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 255
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports, LRT Plius
Maldives	Medianet
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1, Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus, FOX Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter


	Azerbaijan		Lithuania

	1	X	2
	2.7	2.88	2.88
	2.45	3.00	3.10
	2.62	2.78	2.9
	2.72	2.91	2.99
	2.56	2.9	3.05
	2.6	2.85	3
	2.74	2.91	2.91	Watch
	2.7	2.9	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↑ (2.26)	2.89 ↓ (3.11)	2.96 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Azerbaijan
35.7%

Draw
32.5%

Lithuania
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

30.1%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Azerbaijan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Azerbaijan's form might have worsened.

Lithuania has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.9%	26.3%	15.8%

Azerbaijan - Lithuania Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Azerbaijan will win (votes: 11 - 57.9%). Lithuania will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 26.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Azerbaijan: 35.7% – 80.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH +1 - Lithuania (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Azerbaijan (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Azerbaijan will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Azerbaijan (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Lithuania (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Balayev E. (G) Neftci Baku 4. Mammadov R. Turan 15. Huseynov B. (C) Qarabag Agdam 2. Dashdamirov R. Sabah Baku 19. Mutallimov T. Sabah Baku 6. Khaybulaev A. Sabah Baku 20. Isayev A. Sabah Baku 3. Abbasov R. Neftci Baku 7. Bayramov T. Bursaspor 10. Emreli M. Rakow Czestochowa 18. Mammadov O. Shamakhi	12. Svedkauskas T. (G) FK Kauno Zalgiris 18. Armalas V. MTK Budapest 3. Utkus E. Al Kholood 20. Lekiatas R. FK Kauno Zalgiris 21. Lickunas A. Cremonese 6. Vorobjovas M. Sakhnin 15. Gineitis G. Torino 13. Lasickas J. (C) Rijeka 14. Slivka V. FK Kauno Zalgiris 10. Kucys A. Celje 7. Dolznikov A. Slovacko
Substitutes
21. Abdullazada R. Shmona 14. Badalov E. Neftci Baku 12. Bayramov A. (G) Zira FK 9. Dadashov R. Bukovyna 17. Isgandarli V. Malisheva 5. Krivotsyuk A. Daejeon 8. Mahmudov E. Neftci Baku 23. Mirzammadov R. (G) Sabah Baku 11. Nuriyev A. Kisvarda FC 16. Nuriyev C. Araz PFK 22. Qurbanly M. Qarabag Agdam 13. Safarov E. Neftci Baku	23. Bartkus D. (G) Al Riffa 22. Burba M. FK Kauno Zalgiris 11. Jankauskas E. H. Ironi Rishon 5. Kazukolovas K. FC Astana 17. Malzinskas D. Banga 16. Michelbrink L. Energie Cottbus 1. Paukste L. (G) FC Hegelmann 9. Ruzgis M. Besa Kavaje 8. Sluta D. Transinvest 4. Steponavicius F. Suduva 2. Tutyskinas A. Celje 19. Venckus I. Banga
Coaches
Abbasov A.	Jankauskas E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Khaybulaev A. ⚽, Bayramov T. (A),
33', Khaybulaev A. 🟨,
43', Vorobjovas M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bayramov T. ↓, Isgandarli V. ↑,
46', Vorobjovas M. ↓, Michelbrink L. ↑,
46', Utkus E. ↓, Kazukolovas K. ↑,
51', Abbasov A. 🟨,
52', Abbasov A. 🟨,
54', Dolznikov A. 🟨,
57', Isgandarli V. 🟨,
64', Mammadov O. ↓, Safarov E. ↑,
64', Khaybulaev A. ↓, Dadashov R. ↑,
67', Lickunas A. ↓, Burba M. ↑,
68', Slivka V. ↓, Jankauskas E. ↑,
80', Isayev A. ↓, Nuriyev C. ↑,
83', Lekiatas R. ↓, Venckus I. ↑,
88', Mutallimov T. ↓, Badalov E. ↑,
90+2', Badalov E. 🟨,
90+7', Jankauskas E. 🟨,
90+7', Kucys A. 🟥,

Preview

Azerbaijan is ranked FIFA: 126., and Lithuania is ranked FIFA: 149..

Lithuania could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Azerbaijan holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Azerbaijan has recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:1 (averaging 0.5:0.5 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Azerbaijan
UEFA Nations League
01.10.26	Azerbaijan - Liechtenstein	0:0 ✺
27.09.26	Lithuania - Azerbaijan	1:1 ✺
Friendly
23.09.26	Azerbaijan - Tajikistan	1:0 ✺
09.06.26	Azerbaijan - San Marino	2:1 ✺
05.06.26	Azerbaijan - Malta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTWWL
- Lithuania
Friendly
30.09.26	Lithuania - Andorra	3:0 ✺
UEFA Nations League
27.09.26	Lithuania - Azerbaijan	1:1 ✺
24.09.26	Liechtenstein - Lithuania	0:2 ✺
Baltic Cup
09.06.26	Estonia - Lithuania	1:0 ✺
06.06.26	Lithuania - Latvia	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Nations League
27.09.26	Lithuania - Azerbaijan	1:1
Friendly
25.03.19	Azerbaijan - Lithuania	0:0

Azerbaijan - Lithuania: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide