Match Info

Serie A - Round 33

Date: 28 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Bolivia	20:30	Tigo Sports 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	01:30	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	21:30	Globoplay, Premiere, TV Globo
Ecuador	19:30	Canal del Futbol
Kosovo	01:30	Arena Premium 3
Mexico	18:30	Azteca Deportes
North Macedonia	01:30	Arena Premium 3
Russia	03:30	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	01:30	Arena Premium 3
Usa	20:30	Fanatiz


	Bahia		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.7	4	Watch
	1.90	3.60	3.90
	1.85	3.45	3.95	Watch
	1.91	3.85	4.11
	1.96	3.78	3.68	Watch
	1.88	3.8	4.05
	1.91	3.8	3.92	Watch
	1.9	3.6	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (2.04)	3.7 ↑ (3.48)	3.92 ↑ (3.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
50.1%

Draw
25.7%

São Paulo
24.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.6%

27.3%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.2%

27.6%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	50%	12.5%

Bahia - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). São Paulo will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Bahia (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronaldo Strada (G) 99. Olivera C. 44. Marcos Victor 33. David Duarte 3. Moreno M. 46. Luciano Juba 6. Jean Lucas 5. Nicolas Acevedo (C) 11. Rodrigo 16. Erick Pulga 9. Veliz A.	23. Rafael (G) 28. Newton 5. Robert Arboleda 35. Sabino 32. Pedro Lima 16. Bobadilla D. 29. Pablo Maia 18. Wendell 10. Luciano 7. Lucas Moura 9. Jonathan Calleri (C)
Substitutes
7. Ademir 8. Caio Alexandre 14. Erick 27. Everaldo 10. Everton Ribeiro 31. Gomez R. 17. Herrera G. (G) 43. Luiz Gustavo 15. Michel Araujo 77. Ruan Pablo 23. Sanabria M. 66. Ze Guilherme	17. Andre Silva 31. Carlos Coronel (G) 80. Cauly 94. Danielzinho 48. Djhordney 19. Lucas Ramon 54. Luis Osorio 46. Pedro Ferreira 49. Ryan Francisco 43. Santana G. 2. Toloi R. 27. Victor Sa
Coaches
Mucke R.	Dorival Junior

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
6', 1 - 0, Rodrigo ⚽, Jean Lucas (A),
10', 2 - 0, Erick Pulga ⚽, Marcos Victor (A),
43', 2 - 1, Lucas Moura ⚽, Jonathan Calleri (A),
45+5', 2 - 2, Bobadilla D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Nicolas Acevedo ↓, Erick ↑,
56', Jean Lucas ↓, Everton Ribeiro ↑,
56', Erick Pulga ↓, Ademir ↑,
69', Marcos Victor 🟨,
70', Sabino 🟨,
71', Luciano ↓, Djhordney ↑,
74', Rodrigo ↓, Caio Alexandre ↑,
81', 3 - 2, Marcos Victor ⚽, Erick (A),
82', Sabino ↓, Santana G. ↑,
82', Wendell ↓, Victor Sa ↑,
82', Pablo Maia ↓, Danielzinho ↑,
82', Bobadilla D. ↓, Cauly ↑,
88', Olivera C. ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
90+1', Santana G. 🟨,
90+2', Lucas Moura 🟨,
90+3', Dorival Junior 🟨,
90+6', David Duarte 🟨,

Preview

An exciting matchup between two close rivals in the standings (ranked 7th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 9th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 1.

Bahia is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by São Paulo have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Bahia holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Bahia: Kanu (Yellow Cards) Leo Vieira (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for São Paulo: Artur (Inactive) Bosshardt N. (Inactive) Buta (Knee Injury) Cauly (Inactive) Duarte D. (Knee Injury) Iago Borduchi (Yellow Cards) Jonathan Calleri (Inactive).

Doubtful / questionable for São Paulo: Ferreira (Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Bahia has recorded 5 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 16:24 (averaging 0.8:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bahia against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 9:11 goals (averaging 1:1.2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bahia	33	14	11	8	48:42	6	53
10	Sao Paulo	33	12	7	14	39:39	0	43

Last Results with these Odds

Bahia - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 46.58%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

São Paulo - the odds 3.64 are the expected chance of winning is 26.11%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
24.10.26	Santos - Bahia	1:1 ✺
18.10.26	Bahia - Flamengo	0:3 ✺
11.10.26	Bahia - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
08.10.26	Palmeiras - Bahia	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Athletico Paranaense - Bahia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TLWLL
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
24.10.26	Mirassol - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
17.10.26	São Paulo - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
10.10.26	São Paulo - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
07.10.26	Cruzeiro - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
02.10.26	São Paulo - Santos	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	São Paulo - Bahia	2:2
25.10.25	São Paulo - Bahia	2:0
31.05.25	Bahia - São Paulo	2:1
05.11.24	Bahia - São Paulo	0:3
30.06.24	São Paulo - Bahia	3:1
29.11.23	Bahia - São Paulo	0:1
30.07.23	São Paulo - Bahia	0:0

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