The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Atlético de Alagoinhas 11.6%
Draw 23%
Bahia 65.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
15.3%
24.5%
60.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
14.8%
23.7%
62.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético de Alagoinhas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)
Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bahia's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético de Alagoinhas than the current prediction. (+3.2%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-3.3%)
Atlético de Alagoinhas - Bahia Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel Bartelli (G) 4. Dede 8. Diogo Crispim 3. Douglas Rocha Araujo M. 6. Hernandes 11. Higor Farias 9. Michael 10. Miller 2. Van 7. Wanderson Papaterra 5. Willian Kaefer
34. Joao Paulo (G) 63. David Martins 89. Dell 14. Erick 27. Everaldo 83. Fred Lippert 25. Iago Borduchi 43. Luiz Gustavo 11. Rodrigo 23. Sanabria M. 67. Wendel Passos
Substitutes
16. Anderson Santos 19. de Aquino Felipe E. 20. Esquerdinha 17. Everson Ribeiro 22. Galeguinho 24. Gleydisson 13. Guilherme Queiroz 14. Jadson 15. Jefferson 12. Patyego (G) 21. Ruan Teles 18. Walter
81. Ferreira F. (G) 54. Gerald 86. Hugo V. 78. Joao Coni 68. Jota 71. Lyan Araujo 58. Pedrinho 55. Sidney Duarte 61. Victor (G) 66. Ze Guilherme
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 3)
8', 0 - 1, Everaldo ⚽,
30', Wanderson Papaterra 🟨,
38', 0 - 2, Rodrigo ⚽,
43', Willian Kaefer 🟨,
45', 0 - 3, Erick ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Higor Farias ↓, Guilherme Queiroz ↑,
46', Diogo Crispim ↓, Everson Ribeiro ↑,
46', Sanabria M. ↓, Lyan Araujo ↑,
53', 0 - 4, Dell ⚽,
63', 1 - 4, Douglas Rocha Araujo M. ⚽,
87', 2 - 4, Everson Ribeiro ⚽,
88', 🟨,
Preview
This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation ~ Baiano 2 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Baiano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).
Atlético Alagoinhas is Relegated to Baiano 2
Bahia is Qualified for Baiano (Play Offs Semi~finals)
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Alagoinhas won 2.
Atlético Alagoinhas has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Bahia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Bahia is seen as the favorite.
In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Atlético Alagoinhas won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:19. (average 1.1:1.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Alagoinhas won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1.3:1.3).
Watch
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Gabriel Bartelli (G) 
Sanabria M. 
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