Match Info

Copa do Brasil Women - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Alberto Oliveira (Feira de Santana) 🌤️ ...


	Bahia		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	4.00	3.30	1.75
	4	3.35	1.75
	4.2	3.34	1.74
	4.33	3.56	1.72
	4.15	3.3	1.72
	4.06	3.44	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.12 ↑ (3.64)	3.38 ↓ (3.6)	1.74 ↓ (1.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
21.8%

Draw
26.6%

São Paulo
51.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

25.2%

25.5%

49.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.7%

25%

50.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Bahia - São Paulo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Yanne (G) 28. Cassia 5. Gomez A. 97. Isa Fernandes 96. Ju Oliveira (C) 13. Mila Santos 27. Raquel 17. Roqueline 7. Rosa W. 10. Sena Taty 64. Tchula	12. Carlinha (G) 7. Aline 23. Bia Menezes 3. Carol Gil 19. Crivelari 11. Isa 5. Karla Alves 28. Rafa Soares 95. Robinha 8. Serrana 4. Tayla
Substitutes
3. Aila 6. Ana Julia 2. Dan 11. Dani 9. Gica 88. Helo 24. Julia Kerolyn (G) 19. Kamper Rodrigues M. 77. Suelen 70. Terra M. 8. Treyci 18. Vilma	1. Anna Beatriz (G) 15. Barbosa C. 33. Calazans L. 10. Camilinha 6. Clara 18. Kesia Sena 72. Mylena Carioca 16. Pereyra M. 99. Vi Amaral

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
8', Isa Fernandes 🟨,
10', 1 - 0, Gomez A. ⚽,
28', Carol Gil 🟨,
31', Ju Oliveira 🟨,
39', 2 - 0, Isa Fernandes ⚽,
41', Isa 🟨,
42', Karla Alves 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Crivelari ↓, Kesia Sena ↑,
46', Aline ↓, Mylena Carioca ↑,
46', Roqueline ↓, Dan ↑,
48', 2 - 1, Kesia Sena ⚽,
66', Mila Santos ↓, Suelen ↑,
66', Sena Taty ↓, Treyci ↑,
67', Karla Alves ↓, Camilinha ↑,
67', Rafa Soares ↓, Barbosa C. ↑,
76', Rosa W. ↓, Dani ↑,
76', Raquel ↓, Vilma ↑,
82', Isa ↓, Pereyra M. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Bahia has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

São Paulo is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

São Paulo could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to São Paulo for this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Bahia has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:8 (averaging 1.3:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bahia against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 3:5 goals (averaging 1.5:2.5 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia Women
Brazilian Baiano Women
10.10.26	Bahia - Jacuipense	5:0 ✺
07.10.26	Bahia - Jacobina	2:2 ✺
Brasileiro Women
21.09.26	Corinthians - Bahia	1:0 ✺
15.09.26	Bahia - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Baiano Women
07.09.26	Jacuipense - Bahia	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 WTLLW
- São Paulo FC Women
Brasileiro Women
03.10.26	São Paulo - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Corinthians - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	São Paulo - Flamengo	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Flamengo - São Paulo	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	São Paulo - Grêmio Porto Alegrense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brasileiro Women
23.02.26	São Paulo - Bahia	2:1
18.05.25	Bahia - São Paulo	1:2
25.02.23	São Paulo - Bahia	1:1
24.06.21	Bahia - São Paulo	2:3

Bahia - São Paulo