Match Info

NIFL Premiership - Round 9

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Ballymena Showgrounds (Ballymena)

Referee: Andrews S. (Nir)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Nifl TV


	Ballymena United		Portadown

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.90	4.20
	1.68	3.50	4.20
	1.77	4.05	4.30
	1.66	3.97	4.32	Watch
	1.75	4.00	4.05
	1.74	3.91	4.18
	1.70	3.85	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.57)	3.88 ↓ (4.09)	4.17 ↓ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ballymena United
54.1%

Draw
23.8%

Portadown
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.4%

22.3%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

17.4%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ballymena United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Portadown has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ballymena United than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ballymena United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portadown than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Ballymena United - Portadown Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Ballymena United (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ballymena United (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Walsh D. (G) 8. Archer J. 3. Glynn M. 17. Leetch M. 26. Lyons-Foster K. 15. McCallion D. 24. McConnell C. 9. Rutkowski I. 6. Sule F. (C) 13. Thorndike F. 2. Toure D.	1. McCarey A. (G) 4. Altintop B. 12. Breen R. 3. Carson M. 7. Chapman L. 34. Flanagan F. 23. Hewitt M. 2. Isamala D. 28. Kennedy B. 17. O'Mahoney S. 26. Thompson G.
Substitutes
23. Breen D. (G) 32. Burns C. 20. Fallon S. 19. McEleney S. 7. McKee C. . McManus C. 18. Murray S.	33. Barry J. (G) 9. Falls C. 10. Fyfe E. 20. Obhakhan A. 22. Scott J. 19. Teelan J. 8. Towe A.
Coaches
Kearney O.	Jeffrey D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Thompson G. 🟨,
45', 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
58', Leetch M. ↓, Murray S. ↑,
63', 1 - 0, Thorndike F. ⚽,
67', Flanagan F. ↓, Scott J. ↑,
77', Thompson G. ↓, Fyfe E. ↑,
77', Carson M. ↓, Teelan J. ↑,
77', O'Mahoney S. ↓, Obhakhan A. ↑,
82', 2 - 0, Rutkowski I. ⚽,
84', Kennedy B. ↓, Falls C. ↑,

Preview

A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 9th in the NIFL Premiership (Relegation Group: ) and 12th in the NIFL Premiership (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ballymena United won 1.

Recent results have been tough for Ballymena United (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Portadown is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Portadown may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Ballymena United for this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Ballymena United has recorded 10 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 28:19 (averaging 1.4:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ballymena United against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 22:11 goals (averaging 2:1 per game).

Outrights of Northern Irish Premiership for now

Portadown: 0.84% Ballymena: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Ballymena	9	3	3	3	13:11	2	12
12	Portadown	10	1	1	8	8:20	-12	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ballymena United
Northern Irish Premiership
19.09.26	Dungannon Swifts - Ballymena United	1:1 ✺
15.09.26	Ballymena United - Carrick Rangers	1:1 ✺
11.09.26	Coleraine - Ballymena United	3:2 ✺
05.09.26	Bangor - Ballymena United	2:2 ✺
21.08.26	Ballymena United - Glentoran	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTLTL
- Portadown
Northern Irish Premiership
19.09.26	Bangor - Portadown	3:1 ✺
15.09.26	Portadown - Linfield	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Portadown - Larne	0:2 ✺
05.09.26	Cliftonville - Portadown	3:1 ✺
28.08.26	Portadown - Coleraine	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
18.04.26	Ballymena United - Portadown	1:2
24.01.26	Ballymena United - Portadown	1:1
13.12.25	Portadown - Ballymena United	1:0
19.08.25	Portadown - Ballymena United	0:2
26.04.25	Portadown - Ballymena United	2:1
22.02.25	Ballymena United - Portadown	2:0
01.11.24	Ballymena United - Portadown	0:3

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