Match Info

TOPLYGA - Round 26

Date: 9 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Gargzdai stadium (Gargzdai)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Banga Gargždai		Sūduva Marijampolė

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.00	2.60
	2.82	2.88	2.45
	3.21	2.9	2.55
	3.02	2.81	2.61	Watch
	3.2	2.7	2.45
	3.25	3.14	2.26	Watch
	2.8	2.85	2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↑ (2.19)	2.9 ↓ (3.1)	2.48 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Banga Gargždai
31.1%

Draw
31.8%

Sūduva Marijampolė
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

29%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

30.5%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Banga Gargždai has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Banga Gargždai's form might have worsened.

Sūduva Marijampolė has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sūduva Marijampolė's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Banga Gargždai than the current prediction. (+12.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Banga Gargždai, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sūduva Marijampolė than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sūduva Marijampolė, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

Banga Gargždai - Sūduva Marijampolė Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Banga will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Sūduva will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Krynskyi V. (G) 19. Antuzis V. (C) 3. Malzinskas D. 6. Simao J. 20. Levsinas A. 21. Praleika S. 45. Sato M. 10. Magdusauskas V. 11. Filipavicius R. 99. Olugbogi A. 77. Venckus I.	31. Plukas I. (G) 75. Stockunas E. 23. Grigalava R. 5. Baltrunas Z. 4. Uzochukwu H. 19. Tangiri F. 6. Sabo A. 8. Lawson S. (C) 7. Seck I. 94. Sanokho S. M. 14. Steponavicius F.
Substitutes
22. Ambrazaitis M. 17. Andrejev M. 9. Appiah A. 30. Cande U. 12. Grinkevicius L. (G) 27. Henning R. 28. Lukas D. 7. Norvilas D. 55. Sheriff M. 1. Vitkauskas A. (G) 13. Zebrauskas N.	26. Antanavicius D. 11. Chajia M. 10. Haydary O. 9. Lucky T. 13. Mikulenas M. 18. Milasius T. 66. Pacesa R. (G) 46. Skamarakas I. 16. Tsykalo Y. 80. Yefremov Y. 12. Zenkevicius G. (G)
Coaches
Marques Afonso D.	Vencevicius D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
5', 0 - 1, Tangiri F. ⚽, Sanokho S. M. (A),
15', Stockunas E. 🟨,
32', Baltrunas Z. 🟨,
45', 0 - 2, Sanokho S. M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', Antuzis V. 🟨,
54', 0 - 3, Lawson S. ⚽, Seck I. (A),
66', Antuzis V. ↓, Henning R. ↑,
66', Simao J. ↓, Zebrauskas N. ↑,
66', Praleika S. ↓, Cande U. ↑,
67', Sanokho S. M. ↓, Haydary O. ↑,
78', Seck I. ↓, Chajia M. ↑,
78', Steponavicius F. ↓, Milasius T. ↑,
80', Magdusauskas V. ↓, Sheriff M. ↑,
80', Filipavicius R. ↓, Lukas D. ↑,
82', Sabo A. ↓, Antanavicius D. ↑,
85', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Banga won 1.

Banga is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sūduva is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sūduva may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Banga won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 9:19. (average 0.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Banga won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 0.6:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Suduva	28	13	11	4	39:25	14	50
5	Banga	28	11	8	9	32:28	4	41

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Banga Gargždai
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
03.08.26	FA Šiauliai - Banga Gargždai	1:3 ✺
19.07.26	Džiugas Telšiai - Banga Gargždai	1:0 ✺
12.07.26	Transinvest - Banga Gargždai	1:3 ✺
28.06.26	Banga Gargždai - Hegelmann Litauen	2:0 ✺
20.06.26	Banga Gargždai - Žalgiris	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WLWWW
- Sūduva Marijampolė
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
20.07.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - Hegelmann Litauen	5:1 ✺
06.07.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - Transinvest	0:0 ✺
29.06.26	Panevėžys - Sūduva Marijampolė	1:2 ✺
21.06.26	Džiugas Telšiai - Sūduva Marijampolė	1:2 ✺
16.06.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - FA Šiauliai	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian TOPLYGA
13.06.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - Banga Gargždai	0:0
11.04.26	Banga Gargždai - Sūduva Marijampolė	2:1
21.09.25	Banga Gargždai - Sūduva Marijampolė	0:1
17.08.25	Sūduva Marijampolė - Banga Gargždai	2:1
11.05.25	Banga Gargždai - Sūduva Marijampolė	0:1
09.03.25	Sūduva Marijampolė - Banga Gargždai	1:0
27.10.24	Sūduva Marijampolė - Banga Gargždai	2:0

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