Match Info

BRAZIL: Baiano - Round 8

Date: 15 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Barradao (Salvador)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	TVE Bahia


	Barcelona de Ilhéus		Bahia

	1	X	2
	5.6	3.55	1.54
	6.89	3.69	1.5
	6.28	3.59	1.54
	6.5	3.4	1.53
	6.34	3.64	1.5
	5.6	3.55	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.2 ↑ (4.96)	3.57 ↑ (3.27)	1.53 ↓ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barcelona de Ilhéus
14.7%

Draw
25.5%

Bahia
59.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.2%

27.5%

54.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.6%

26.6%

56.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barcelona de Ilhéus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bahia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona de Ilhéus than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Barcelona de Ilhéus - Bahia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Simoes Viana W. (G) 10. Cadu 11. Denis Ribeiro 6. Izaldo 4. Jaques 14. John Lessa 25. Juan Gauto 5. Lidio 9. Lucio Maranhao 2. Michel Tiago 18. Willian Kaefer	41. Denis Junior (G) 13. Arias S. 8. Cauly 33. David Duarte 14. Erick 71. Kaua Davi 26. Nicolas Acevedo 5. Rezende 11. Rodrigo 77. Tiago 12. Willian Jose
Substitutes
13. Ale Santos 21. Hippolito 19. Jacare A. 22. Jeferson Neves 17. Joao de Deus F. S. 16. Lucas Peres 20. Nadson 1. Rafael Copetti (G) 8. Ramires 7. Silva R. 15. Vinicius Guimaraes M.	27. Caio Roque 89. Dell 83. Frederico 93. Gabriel Souza (G) 68. Jota 97. Juninho 69. Martins D. 15. Michel Araujo 52. Ruan Pablo 70. Vitinho 31. Vitor Hugo 20. Yago Felipe

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
37', 0 - 1, Willian Jose ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kaua Davi ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
73', Tiago ↓, Ruan Pablo ↑,
75', John Lessa ↓, Ale Santos ↑,
81', Willian Jose ↓, Dell ↑,
81', Cauly ↓, Juninho ↑,

Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 6 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Baiano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Recent matches Barcelona is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Bahia is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Bahia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Bahia is absolute favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Barcelona won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:4 (average 0.7:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Barcelona won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barcelona de Ilhéus
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
12.02.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Jacuipense	1:1 ✺
04.02.25	Colo Colo de Ilhéus - Barcelona de Ilhéus	2:2 ✺
28.01.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Atlético de Alagoinhas	1:0 ✺
22.01.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Jacobina	2:2 ✺
18.01.25	Juazeirense - Barcelona de Ilhéus	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TTWTT
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
12.02.25	Bahia - América RN	5:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
09.02.25	Bahia - Colo Colo de Ilhéus	6:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
05.02.25	Juazeirense - Bahia	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
01.02.25	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	0:0 ✺
29.01.25	Jequié - Bahia	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
31.01.24	Bahia - Barcelona de Ilhéus	2:0
01.02.23	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Bahia	1:2
09.02.22	Bahia - Barcelona de Ilhéus	0:1

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