The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Barra Santa Catarina 26.7%
Draw 32.9%
Náutico Marcílio Dias 40.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
37.8%
31.5%
30.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
38%
31.3%
30.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Barra Santa Catarina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Barra Santa Catarina's form might have worsened.
Náutico Marcílio Dias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Náutico Marcílio Dias's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barra Santa Catarina than the current prediction. (+11.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Barra Santa Catarina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Marcílio Dias than the current prediction. (-9.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Náutico Marcílio Dias, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
18.2%
81.8%
Barra Santa Catarina - Náutico Marcílio Dias Predictions
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Marcílio Dias will win (votes: 9 - 81.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Confidence interval (95%) for Marcílio Dias: 59% – 100%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Marcílio Dias (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
AH 0 - Marcílio Dias (1.96) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Marcílio Dias (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 3)
22', 0 - 1, Diego Ceara ⚽,
33', 0 - 2, (Own goal),
39', 0 - 3, Diego Ceara ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
60', 0 - 4, ⚽,
65', 0 - 5, ⚽,
89', 0 - 6, ⚽,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Barra won 2.
Barra is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Marcílio Dias has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Marcílio Dias may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Barra won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.5:1.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Barra won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).
Last Results with these Odds
Náutico Marcílio Dias - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 30.74%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.
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