Match Info

Southern League Premier Central - Round 9

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday


	Barwell		Stourbridge

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.5	1.98
	3.27	3.63	1.93
	1.94	3.74	3.41	Watch
	3.38	3.48	1.94
	2.77	3.8	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (2.77)	3.63 ↓ (3.8)	2.3 ↑ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barwell
32.7%

Draw
26.1%

Stourbridge
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

24.5%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

23.5%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barwell has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Stourbridge has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barwell than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stourbridge than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Barwell - Stourbridge Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Waite T. ⚽,
34', 2 - 0, Mancinelli P. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Barwell won 1.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Stourbridge could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Barwell won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:24. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Barwell won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.2:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Barwell - the odds 2.77 are the expected chance of winning is 33.59%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Stourbridge - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 41.92%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barwell
English Southern League Central Division
20.09.25	Barwell - Bromsgrove Sporting	0:2 ✺
09.09.25	Stratford Town - Barwell	4:1 ✺
06.09.25	Barwell - Needham Market	1:1 ✺
25.08.25	Quorn - Barwell	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Barwell - Alvechurch	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LLTWL
- Stourbridge FC
English Southern League Central Division
20.09.25	Redditch United - Stourbridge	3:1 ✺
10.09.25	Stourbridge - Worcester City	2:2 ✺
06.09.25	Bishops Stortford - Stourbridge	0:1 ✺
25.08.25	Banbury United - Stourbridge	3:2 ✺
23.08.25	Stourbridge - Spalding United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League Central Division
18.04.25	Barwell - Stourbridge	0:2
06.09.24	Stourbridge - Barwell	0:0
16.12.23	Barwell - Stourbridge	3:1
19.08.23	Stourbridge - Barwell	2:0
14.01.23	Barwell - Stourbridge	1:1
26.11.22	Stourbridge - Barwell	0:1
19.03.22	Stourbridge - Barwell	1:1

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