Match Info

Promotion League

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday


	Bavois		Lugano II

	1	X	2
	1.43	4.45	5.35
	1.46	4.65	5.63
	1.47	4.68	5.63	Watch
	1.4	4.5	6.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.51)	4.57 ↑ (4.37)	5.67 ↑ (5.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bavois
63.7%

Draw
20.1%

Lugano II
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.5%

21.3%

17.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63%

20.8%

16.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bavois has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Lugano II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bavois than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano II than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Bavois - Lugano II Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
1', 1 - 0, Figueiredo G. ⚽,
21', 2 - 0, Bega I. ⚽,
32', 2 - 1, Parente J. ⚽,
32', 3 - 1, Alvarez A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
79', 4 - 1, Clement L. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 and 12).

Recent form of Bavois has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lugano II has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Bavois is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Bavois won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Including home match between the teams, Bavois won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Lugano II	10	3	0	7	15:22	-7	9
16	Bavois	10	2	2	6	10:12	-2	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bavois
Swiss Promotion League
19.04.26	Biel-Bienne - Bavois	5:2 ✺
15.04.26	Bavois - Grand-Saconnex	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Bavois - Young Boys II	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Paradiso - Bavois	2:1 ✺
28.03.26	Bavois - Basel II	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWTLL
- FC Lugano II
Swiss Promotion League
19.04.26	Lugano II - Young Boys II	0:6 ✺
15.04.26	Paradiso - Lugano II	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Lugano II - Basel II	4:2 ✺
08.04.26	Lugano II - Zurich II	0:0 ✺
02.04.26	Bulle - Lugano II	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Promotion League
19.10.25	Lugano II - Bavois	1:1
12.04.25	Lugano II - Bavois	0:0
23.03.24	Bavois - Lugano II	3:1
16.09.23	Lugano II - Bavois	2:1

Bavois - Lugano II: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide