Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 17 August 2023, Thursday

Location: Vodafone Park (Istanbul)

Referee: Weinberger J. (Aut)


	Beşiktaş		Neftchi Baku

	1	X	2
	1.3	5.25	7.5	Watch
	1.21	6.25	10.5
	1.21	6.4	12.5
	1.2	6.5	12
	1.28	5.83	9.74
	1.2	6.65	13	Watch
	1.21	7.2	14
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.67)	6.3 ↑ (3.55)	11.32 ↑ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Beşiktaş
76.7%

Draw
15%

Neftchi Baku
8.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.5%

25.7%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

24.1%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Beşiktaş has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+22.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Beşiktaş's performance.

Neftchi Baku has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Neftchi Baku might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Beşiktaş than the current prediction. (-18.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Beşiktaş that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Neftchi Baku could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
94.1%	0%	5.9%

Beşiktaş - Neftchi Baku Predictions

Users Predictions: Beşiktaş will win (32 of 34 users predict this - 94.12%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Gunok M. (G) 24. Rosier V. 20. Uysal N. (C) 12. Amartey D. 77. Meras U. 71. Onana J. 21. Tiknaz D. E. 83. Fernandes G. 90. Kilicsoy S. 40. Muleka J. 7. Rebic A.	1. Brkic I. (G) 99. Koffi E. 44. Yuri Matias 4. Tamas M. 5. Saief K. 23. Jaber A. 8. Mahmudov E. (C) 10. Ozobic F. 9. Shinyashiki A. 25. Olanare A. 11. Lebon K.
Substitutes
10. Aboubakar V. 99. Bulut E. 4. Bulut O. 1. Destanoglu E. (G) 19. Hadziahmetovic A. 23. Kayra Yilmaz K. 17. Kesgin K. 26. Masuaku A. 3. Montero F. 9. Tosun C. 8. Ucan S. 97. Yuvakuran U. (G)	77. Bogomolskiy E. 93. Cafarov R. (G) 17. Hadzhiyev R. 3. Haqverdi H. 30. Mammadov A. (G) 19. Salahly A. 27. Yusifli F. 21. Zulfugarli I.
Coaches
Gunes S.	Mutu A.

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 3-1.

Beşiktaş in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Neftchi is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Beşiktaş could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Beşiktaş is indisputable favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Beşiktaş won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Beşiktaş
Turkish Super League
14.08.23	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Beşiktaş	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
10.08.23	Neftchi Baku - Beşiktaş	1:3 ✺
03.08.23	Tirana - Beşiktaş	0:2 ✺
27.07.23	Beşiktaş - Tirana	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
21.07.23	Beşiktaş - Strasbourg	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWWW
- Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League
14.08.23	Neftchi Baku - Səbail	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
10.08.23	Neftchi Baku - Beşiktaş	1:3 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
06.08.23	Kapaz - Neftchi Baku	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
03.08.23	Neftchi Baku - Željezničar Sarajevo	2:0 ✺
27.07.23	Željezničar Sarajevo - Neftchi Baku	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
10.08.23	Neftchi Baku - Beşiktaş	1:3

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